DCF Studio

    ASSA-B.ST · STO · Industrials

    ASSA ABLOY AB (publ)

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    SEK 1620.92

    Market price

    SEK 347.80

    Implied upside

    +366.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis line has no market capitalisation, which means it is not ordinary shares - typically a hybrid, preference line, note or unlisted stub. A discounted cashflow values a claim on the whole business, so applying it here attributes all of the group’s revenue to a security that has no such claim. Its value is its coupon and call schedule. Look up the ordinary line instead.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    SEK 1620.92+366.1%
    Exit multiple
    SEK 320.44-7.9%
    Market price
    SEK 347.80

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (SEK). Outflows negative.

    0bn16bn31bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todaySEK
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueSEK 164.7bnSEK 178.0bnSEK 192.3bnSEK 207.8bnSEK 224.5bn+8.1%
    EBITSEK 25.9bnSEK 27.9bnSEK 30.2bnSEK 32.6bnSEK 35.3bn+8.1%
    NOPATSEK 19.4bnSEK 21.0bnSEK 22.6bnSEK 24.5bnSEK 26.4bn+8.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationSEK 6.1bnSEK 6.6bnSEK 7.1bnSEK 7.7bnSEK 8.3bn+8.1%
    Less capital expenditureSEK -2.9bnSEK -3.1bnSEK -3.4bnSEK -3.7bnSEK -4.0bn+8.1%
    Less increase in working capitalSEK 270.4mSEK 292.2mSEK 315.8mSEK 341.2mSEK 368.7m-8.1%
    Free cashflow to firmSEK 22.9bnSEK 24.7bnSEK 26.7bnSEK 28.8bnSEK 31.2bn+8.1%
    Discount factor0.98260.94860.91580.88410.8535-
    Present valueSEK 22.5bnSEK 23.4bnSEK 24.4bnSEK 25.5bnSEK 26.6bn+4.3%
    Present Value Of The ForecastSEK 122.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.897Reported 0.846, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.03%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.78%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationSEK 0.000.0% of capital
    Total debtSEK 65.4bn100.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC3.58%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareSEK 1620.92

    93% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    SEK 31.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    SEK 28.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.1% of NOPAT)
    SEK -6.5bn
    Capitalised
    SEK 21.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 2041.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 1742.0bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 1864.4bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 63.9bn
    Equity value
    SEK 1800.5bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareSEK 320.44

    71% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 348.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 297.5bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 419.9bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 63.9bn
    Equity value
    SEK 355.9bn

    Spread between methods: 134%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (SEK) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    1.58%25055.38————
    2.58%1872.253267.4721623.55——
    3.58%956.561184.071620.892806.3018400.65
    4.58%634.76713.88830.541020.331384.62
    5.58%470.40505.89552.59617.02711.96

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 347.80. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year8.1%-19.5%-27.6pp
    EBIT margin15.7%3.0%-12.7pp
    Discount rate3.6%7.3%+3.7pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.