AXP · NYQ · Financial Services
American Express Company
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Implied value per share
USD 220.21
Market price
USD 327.98
Implied upside
-32.9%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 35.4%
- Payout
- 21%
- Cost of equity
- 9.34%
- Return on equity by the final year
- 20.0%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 33.5bn | USD 39.6bn | USD 46.1bn | USD 52.9bn | USD 59.8bn | USD 66.5bn | USD 72.8bn | USD 78.5bn | USD 83.2bn | USD 86.7bn |
| Return on equity | 33.8% | 32.3% | 30.8% | 29.2% | 27.7% | 26.1% | 24.6% | 23.1% | 21.5% | 20.0% |
| Excess return | USD 8.2bn | USD 9.1bn | USD 9.9bn | USD 10.5bn | USD 11.0bn | USD 11.2bn | USD 11.1bn | USD 10.8bn | USD 10.1bn | USD 9.2bn |
| Present value | USD 7.5bn | USD 7.6bn | USD 7.6bn | USD 7.4bn | USD 7.0bn | USD 6.5bn | USD 6.0bn | USD 5.3bn | USD 4.5bn | USD 3.8bn |
| Book equity | USD 33.5bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 63.1bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 56.7bn |
| Equity value | USD 153.3bn |
| Per share | USD 220.21 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 1.052 | Reported 1.077, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 9.34% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.