DCF Studio

    BA · NYQ · Industrials

    The Boeing Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -49.98

    Market price

    USD 198.20

    Implied upside

    -125.2%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -49.98-125.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD -96.79-148.8%
    Market price
    USD 198.20

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -3991085226-19955426130FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 98.7bnUSD 108.9bnUSD 120.2bnUSD 132.6bnUSD 146.3bn+10.3%
    EBITUSD -7.1bnUSD -7.8bnUSD -8.6bnUSD -9.5bnUSD -10.5bn-10.3%
    NOPATUSD -6.0bnUSD -6.6bnUSD -7.3bnUSD -8.1bnUSD -8.9bn-10.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.8bn+10.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.9bn+10.3%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 5.0bn-10.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -2.7bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -4.0bn-10.3%
    Discount factor0.95570.87280.79720.72810.6650-
    Present valueUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.7bn-0.8%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -13.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.143Reported 1.213, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.28%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.10%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 156.7bn74.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 54.4bn25.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.49%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -49.98

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD -13.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 25.0bn
    Equity value
    USD -38.1bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD -96.79

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD -53.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD -35.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD -48.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 25.0bn
    Equity value
    USD -73.8bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.49%-50.80-50.80-50.80-50.80-50.80
    8.49%-50.38-50.38-50.38-50.38-50.38
    9.49%-49.98-49.98-49.98-49.98-49.98
    10.49%-49.60-49.60-49.60-49.60-49.60
    11.49%-49.22-49.22-49.22-49.22-49.22

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 198.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year10.3%68.3%+57.9pp
    EBIT margin-7.2%12.3%+19.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.