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    BALL · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Ball Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 47.11

    Market price

    USD 68.07

    Implied upside

    -30.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 7.2% of revenue against depreciation of 5.2%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 47.11-30.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 69.72+2.4%
    Market price
    USD 68.07

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.9bnUSD 15.6bnUSD 16.3bnUSD 16.9bnUSD 17.5bnUSD 18.1bnUSD 18.7bnUSD 19.3bnUSD 19.8bnUSD 20.3bn+3.5%
    EBITUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bn+3.5%
    NOPATUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+3.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 772.8mUSD 807.3mUSD 841.3mUSD 874.7mUSD 907.3mUSD 938.8mUSD 969.2mUSD 998.2mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bn+3.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.4bn+2.9%
    Capex, % of revenue7.2%7.1%7.1%7.1%7.0%7.0%6.9%6.9%6.8%6.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 124.6mUSD 46.7mUSD 46.1mUSD 45.3mUSD 44.2mUSD 42.8mUSD 41.2mUSD 39.3mUSD 37.2mUSD 34.8m+13.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 961.9mUSD 928.0mUSD 971.4mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bn+3.0%
    Discount factor0.96350.89440.83030.77080.71550.66430.61660.57240.53140.4933-
    Present valueUSD 926.8mUSD 830.0mUSD 806.6mUSD 781.9mUSD 756.2mUSD 729.7mUSD 702.3mUSD 674.4mUSD 646.0mUSD 617.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.966Reported 0.950, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.98%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 18.0bn72.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 7.0bn28.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.72%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 47.11

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -551.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    7.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 23.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.0bn

    Exit at 11.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 69.72

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 35.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 19.2bn

    Spread between methods: 39%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.72%82.5184.7888.0892.97100.53
    6.72%62.4462.4862.7563.3764.48
    7.72%48.8447.9747.1146.2745.44
    8.72%40.1539.3738.5937.8137.03
    9.72%33.4032.7432.0731.4130.75

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 68.07. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-0.5%4.4%7.5%
    EBIT margin10.6%9.6%12.7%
    Discount rate-7.7%6.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.