DCF Studio

    BEI.DE · GER · Consumer Defensive

    Beiersdorf Aktiengesellschaft

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 104.74

    Market price

    EUR 74.30

    Implied upside

    +41.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 5.2% of revenue against depreciation of 3.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 104.74+41.0%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 82.90+11.6%
    Market price
    EUR 74.30

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m431m863mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 10.2bnEUR 10.6bnEUR 11.0bnEUR 11.5bnEUR 11.9bn+3.8%
    EBITEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.6bn+3.8%
    NOPATEUR 959.9mEUR 996.8mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.1bn+3.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 382.8mEUR 397.5mEUR 412.8mEUR 428.6mEUR 445.1m+3.8%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -532.9mEUR -553.4mEUR -574.6mEUR -596.7mEUR -619.6m+3.8%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -67.7mEUR -70.3mEUR -73.0mEUR -75.8mEUR -78.7m+3.8%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 742.1mEUR 770.6mEUR 800.2mEUR 830.9mEUR 862.9m+3.8%
    Discount factor0.96890.90960.85390.80160.7525-
    Present valueEUR 719.1mEUR 701.0mEUR 683.3mEUR 666.1mEUR 649.3m-2.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.657Reported 0.488, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.54%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.60%Implied cost of debt of 31.8% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 2bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes.
    Market capitalisationEUR 16.2bn99.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 100.0m0.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate29.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.52%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 104.74

    83% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 862.9m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.1% of NOPAT)
    EUR -270.0m
    Capitalised
    EUR 899.5m
    ROIC (reported)
    10.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 22.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 17.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 20.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -2.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 23.1bn

    Exit at 8.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 82.90

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 16.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 12.4bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 15.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -2.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 18.3bn

    Spread between methods: 23%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.52%152.92170.44196.54239.67324.81
    5.52%117.37125.15135.44149.74171.01
    6.52%96.0199.91104.74110.88118.99
    7.52%81.7783.8386.2789.2192.83
    8.52%71.6072.6973.9475.3877.08

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 74.30. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year3.8%-5.6%-9.4pp
    EBIT margin13.4%9.1%-4.3pp
    Discount rate6.5%8.5%+2.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.