DCF Studio

    BESI.AS · AMS · Technology

    BE Semiconductor Industries N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 14.48

    Market price

    EUR 186.65

    Implied upside

    -92.2%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 7.8% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 72.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 14.48-92.2%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 29.92-84.0%
    Market price
    EUR 186.65

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m77m155mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 553.0mEUR 517.2mEUR 483.7mEUR 452.4mEUR 423.1m-6.5%
    EBITEUR 192.2mEUR 179.8mEUR 168.1mEUR 157.2mEUR 147.0m-6.5%
    NOPATEUR 166.1mEUR 155.4mEUR 145.3mEUR 135.9mEUR 127.1m-6.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 24.9mEUR 23.3mEUR 21.8mEUR 20.4mEUR 19.1m-6.5%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -29.1mEUR -27.2mEUR -25.4mEUR -23.8mEUR -22.2m-6.5%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -7.1mEUR -6.7mEUR -6.2mEUR -5.8mEUR -5.5m-6.5%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 154.9mEUR 144.8mEUR 135.5mEUR 126.7mEUR 118.5m-6.5%
    Discount factor0.94550.84520.75550.67540.6037-
    Present valueEUR 146.4mEUR 122.4mEUR 102.3mEUR 85.6mEUR 71.5m-16.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 528.3m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.222Reported 1.331, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity12.14%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.70%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 14.8bn96.6% of capital
    Total debtEUR 521.2m3.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.6%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC11.87%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 14.48

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 118.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 133.1m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (11.9% of NOPAT)
    EUR -15.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 117.3m
    ROIC (reported)
    21.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 1.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 774.9m
    Enterprise value
    EUR 1.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 148.3m
    Equity value
    EUR 1.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 29.92

    79% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 3.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 2.0bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 2.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 148.3m
    Equity value
    EUR 2.4bn

    Spread between methods: 70%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    9.87%17.3417.8518.4319.0819.84
    10.87%15.4615.8216.2216.6717.18
    11.87%13.9314.1914.4814.8015.16
    12.87%12.6712.8613.0813.3113.56
    13.87%11.6111.7611.9112.0812.26

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 186.65. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-6.5%59.8%+66.3pp
    Discount rate11.9%3.2%-8.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.