DCF Studio

    BG · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    Bunge Global SA

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 150.68

    Market price

    USD 94.22

    Implied upside

    +59.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.9% of revenue against depreciation of 0.8%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 150.68+59.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 219.36+132.8%
    Market price
    USD 94.22

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -1bn0bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 94.1bnUSD 95.9bnUSD 97.8bnUSD 99.8bnUSD 102.0bnUSD 104.2bnUSD 106.6bnUSD 109.2bnUSD 111.8bnUSD 114.6bn+2.2%
    EBITUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bn+2.2%
    NOPATUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bn+2.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 763.0mUSD 777.8mUSD 793.5mUSD 810.0mUSD 827.4mUSD 845.7mUSD 865.1mUSD 885.5mUSD 907.0mUSD 929.7m+2.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.7bn-1.0%
    Capex, % of revenue1.9%1.9%1.8%1.8%1.7%1.7%1.6%1.6%1.5%1.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -2.5bnUSD -193.6mUSD -204.5mUSD -215.9mUSD -227.8mUSD -240.3mUSD -253.4mUSD -267.1mUSD -281.5mUSD -296.7m-21.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -1.1bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bn-
    Discount factor0.96740.90530.84710.79270.74180.69420.64960.60790.56890.5324-
    Present valueUSD -1.0bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 9.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.784Reported 0.678, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.21%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.73%Risk-free + 184bp, the spread for a BB rating at 2.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 18.1bn53.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 15.9bn46.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.86%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 150.68

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -729.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 55.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 29.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 38.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 25.1bn

    Exit at 15.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 219.36

    81% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 76.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 40.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 50.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 36.5bn

    Spread between methods: 37%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.86%291.83323.96370.73443.91572.64
    5.86%197.85210.56227.74251.71286.81
    6.86%139.32144.19150.68159.41171.37
    7.86%99.49100.75102.63105.32109.10
    8.86%70.7270.2069.9069.8870.22

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 94.22. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year1.5%5.0%1.0%
    EBIT margin5.3%3.4%2.7%
    Discount rate-6.9%8.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.