DCF Studio

    BIIB · NMS · Healthcare

    Biogen Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 318.85

    Market price

    USD 249.01

    Implied upside

    +28.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 318.85+28.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 278.60+11.9%
    Market price
    USD 249.01

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 10.5bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.8bnUSD 12.1bnUSD 12.4bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.0bn+2.4%
    EBITUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bn+2.4%
    NOPATUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bn+2.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 657.3mUSD 671.9mUSD 687.1mUSD 702.8mUSD 719.2mUSD 736.2mUSD 753.8mUSD 772.1mUSD 791.2mUSD 810.9m+2.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -306.8mUSD -393.8mUSD -484.7mUSD -579.8mUSD -679.1mUSD -783.0mUSD -891.8mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bn+16.9%
    Capex, % of revenue2.9%3.7%4.4%5.1%5.9%6.6%7.4%8.1%8.9%9.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -245.2mUSD -89.9mUSD -93.3mUSD -96.9mUSD -100.6mUSD -104.5mUSD -108.5mUSD -112.7mUSD -117.1mUSD -121.7m-7.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn-0.9%
    Discount factor0.97030.91350.86000.80960.76220.71760.67550.63600.59870.5637-
    Present valueUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 16.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.388Reported 0.086, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.53%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 9.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 36.8bn84.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.6bn15.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.22%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 318.85

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -893.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 58.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 32.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 49.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 46.9bn

    Exit at 12.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 278.60

    62% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 47.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 26.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 43.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 41.0bn

    Spread between methods: 13%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.22%537.82593.80684.35851.971257.19
    5.22%391.30409.08434.60473.10535.89
    6.22%306.81311.75318.85329.12344.30
    7.22%251.82251.59251.94253.06255.28
    8.22%213.16210.69208.27205.92203.66

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 249.01. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-0.9%2.8%-0.1%
    EBIT margin28.5%24.0%18.3%
    Discount rate-6.2%7.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.