DCF Studio

    BKNG · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    Booking Holdings Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 170.57

    Market price

    USD 153.75

    Implied upside

    +10.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 170.57+10.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 179.58+16.8%
    Market price
    USD 153.75

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn6bn12bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 29.3bnUSD 32.0bnUSD 34.6bnUSD 37.3bnUSD 39.8bnUSD 42.1bnUSD 44.2bnUSD 46.1bnUSD 47.6bnUSD 48.8bn+5.8%
    EBITUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 12.3bnUSD 13.0bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 14.7bnUSD 15.1bn+5.8%
    NOPATUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.9bn+5.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 927.5mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+5.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -495.3mUSD -608.6mUSD -733.0mUSD -867.2mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bn+15.1%
    Capex, % of revenue1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.5%2.7%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 49.8mUSD 57.6mUSD 57.2mUSD 55.8mUSD 53.3mUSD 49.7mUSD 45.1mUSD 39.4mUSD 32.8mUSD 25.3m+7.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 7.6bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.7bn+4.9%
    Discount factor0.95700.87640.80260.73500.67310.61640.56450.51700.47350.4336-
    Present valueUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.1bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 64.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.103Reported 1.153, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.56%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt8.89%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 115.5bn85.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 19.3bn14.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.20%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 170.57

    54% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 11.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 12.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (5.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -700.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 11.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    43.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 177.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 76.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 141.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 139.2bn

    Exit at 11.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 179.58

    57% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 194.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 84.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 148.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 146.5bn

    Spread between methods: 5%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.20%218.48229.88243.78261.10283.21
    8.20%185.04192.23200.74210.97223.45
    9.20%160.33165.07170.57177.01184.65
    10.20%141.34144.56148.24152.49157.41
    11.20%126.29128.53131.06133.94137.23

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 153.75. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year16.3%6.1%4.9%
    EBIT margin34.5%30.9%27.7%
    Discount rate-9.2%9.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.