DCF Studio

    BMW.DE · GER · Consumer Cyclical

    Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 691.53

    Market price

    EUR 60.40

    Implied upside

    +1044.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 11.4x the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 691.53+1044.9%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 67.86+12.3%
    Market price
    EUR 60.40

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 130.5bnEUR 127.7bnEUR 124.9bnEUR 122.2bnEUR 119.5bn-2.2%
    EBITEUR 12.2bnEUR 11.9bnEUR 11.7bnEUR 11.4bnEUR 11.1bn-2.2%
    NOPATEUR 8.8bnEUR 8.6bnEUR 8.4bnEUR 8.2bnEUR 8.0bn-2.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 8.0bnEUR 7.8bnEUR 7.6bnEUR 7.4bnEUR 7.3bn-2.2%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -9.8bnEUR -9.6bnEUR -9.4bnEUR -9.2bnEUR -9.0bn-2.2%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -2.0bnEUR -1.9bnEUR -1.9bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bn-2.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 4.9bnEUR 4.8bnEUR 4.7bnEUR 4.6bnEUR 4.5bn-2.2%
    Discount factor0.98270.94900.91640.88490.8546-
    Present valueEUR 4.8bnEUR 4.6bnEUR 4.3bnEUR 4.1bnEUR 3.8bn-5.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 21.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.845Reported 0.768, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.67%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.60%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 36.2bn29.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 88.3bn71.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate28.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC3.55%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 691.53

    96% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 4.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 10.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (44.5% of NOPAT)
    EUR -4.5bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 5.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    5.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 549.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 469.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 491.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 67.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 424.3bn

    Exit at 5.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 67.86

    80% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 101.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 87.0bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 108.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 67.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 41.6bn

    Spread between methods: 164%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    1.55%21111.05————
    2.55%972.621682.9615426.64——
    3.55%439.82525.60691.541154.5110104.76
    4.55%256.18274.64301.49344.84428.15
    5.55%163.33165.04166.92169.09171.76

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 60.40. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-2.2%-22.4%-20.2pp
    EBIT margin9.3%0.5%-8.8pp
    Discount rate3.6%8.5%+5.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.