DCF Studio

    BN.PA · PAR · Consumer Defensive

    Danone S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 100.78

    Market price

    EUR 60.54

    Implied upside

    +66.5%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 100.78+66.5%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 65.44+8.1%
    Market price
    EUR 60.54

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 27.2bnEUR 27.0bnEUR 26.9bnEUR 26.8bnEUR 26.7bn-0.5%
    EBITEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.4bn-0.5%
    NOPATEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.5bn-0.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bn-0.5%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -914.0mEUR -909.8mEUR -905.6mEUR -901.5mEUR -897.3m-0.5%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 124.8mEUR 124.3mEUR 123.7mEUR 123.1mEUR 122.6m+0.5%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.2bn-0.5%
    Discount factor0.97590.92930.88500.84270.8025-
    Present valueEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 2.8bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.6bn-5.2%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 14.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.451Reported 0.181, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity5.91%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.48%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 39.0bn73.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 14.4bn27.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.01%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 100.78

    80% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 3.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 2.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.7% of NOPAT)
    EUR -718.1m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 73.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 58.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 72.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 65.0bn

    Exit at 9.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 65.44

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 44.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 35.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 50.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 42.2bn

    Spread between methods: 43%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.01%200.20275.57498.3022537.45—
    4.01%119.45137.76168.08228.23405.91
    5.01%84.6091.37100.78114.77137.91
    6.01%65.1368.0271.7076.5383.22
    7.01%52.6653.9255.4257.2559.55

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 60.54. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-0.5%-17.0%-16.6pp
    EBIT margin12.7%8.0%-4.7pp
    Discount rate5.0%6.6%+1.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.