BN4.SI · SES · Industrials
Keppel Ltd.
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD -0.94
Market price
SGD 11.03
Implied upside
-108.6%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 21.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 5.8bn | SGD 5.6bn | SGD 5.4bn | SGD 5.2bn | SGD 5.1bn | -3.3% |
| EBIT | SGD 927.7m | SGD 896.9m | SGD 867.2m | SGD 838.4m | SGD 810.6m | -3.3% |
| NOPAT | SGD 716.2m | SGD 692.4m | SGD 669.5m | SGD 647.3m | SGD 625.8m | -3.3% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 209.8m | SGD 202.8m | SGD 196.1m | SGD 189.6m | SGD 183.3m | -3.3% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -620.4m | SGD -599.8m | SGD -579.9m | SGD -560.7m | SGD -542.1m | -3.3% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD -42.5m | SGD -41.1m | SGD -39.7m | SGD -38.4m | SGD -37.1m | -3.3% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 263.1m | SGD 254.3m | SGD 245.9m | SGD 237.8m | SGD 229.9m | -3.3% |
| Discount factor | 0.9684 | 0.9081 | 0.8515 | 0.7985 | 0.7488 | - |
| Present value | SGD 254.7m | SGD 231.0m | SGD 209.4m | SGD 189.9m | SGD 172.1m | -9.3% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 1.1bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.678 | Reported 0.519, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 8.61% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 19.8bn | 63.4% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 11.4bn | 36.6% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 22.8% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.64% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
87% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 229.9m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 632.6m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.7% of NOPAT)
- SGD -238.2m
- Capitalised
- SGD 394.4m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 6.6%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 9.8bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 7.3bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 8.4bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 10.1bn
- Equity value
- SGD -1.7bn
Exit at 20.0x EBITDA
93% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 19.9bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 14.9bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 15.9bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 10.1bn
- Equity value
- SGD 5.8bn
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.64% | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.37 |
| 5.64% | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| 6.64% | -0.98 | -0.96 | -0.94 | -0.92 | -0.91 |
| 7.64% | -1.66 | -1.64 | -1.62 | -1.61 | -1.59 |
| 8.64% | -2.17 | -2.15 | -2.14 | -2.13 | -2.11 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 11.03. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | -3.3% | 24.2% | +27.5pp |
| EBIT margin | 16.0% | 50.8% | +34.7pp |
| Discount rate | 6.6% | 3.2% | -3.5pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.