DCF Studio

    BNR.DE · GER · Basic Materials

    Brenntag SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 57.65

    Market price

    EUR 59.94

    Implied upside

    -3.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 57.65-3.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 45.46-24.2%
    Market price
    EUR 59.94

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m380m760mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 14.0bnEUR 12.9bnEUR 11.8bnEUR 10.9bnEUR 10.0bn-7.9%
    EBITEUR 810.3mEUR 746.1mEUR 687.1mEUR 632.7mEUR 582.6m-7.9%
    NOPATEUR 587.4mEUR 540.9mEUR 498.1mEUR 458.7mEUR 422.4m-7.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 384.8mEUR 354.4mEUR 326.3mEUR 300.5mEUR 276.7m-7.9%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -255.8mEUR -235.5mEUR -216.9mEUR -199.7mEUR -183.9m-7.9%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 43.9mEUR 40.5mEUR 37.3mEUR 34.3mEUR 31.6m+7.9%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 760.4mEUR 700.2mEUR 644.8mEUR 593.8mEUR 546.8m-7.9%
    Discount factor0.97240.91950.86950.82220.7775-
    Present valueEUR 739.4mEUR 643.9mEUR 560.7mEUR 488.2mEUR 425.1m-12.9%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 2.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.686Reported 0.531, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.71%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.41%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 8.7bn72.6% of capital
    Total debtEUR 3.3bn27.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate27.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.75%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 57.65

    74% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 546.8m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 422.4m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.4% of NOPAT)
    EUR -98.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 323.5m
    ROIC (reported)
    10.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 10.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 7.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 10.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 2.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 8.3bn

    Exit at 9.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 45.46

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 7.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 6.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 9.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 2.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 6.6bn

    Spread between methods: 24%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.75%99.64120.91159.08247.90689.56
    4.75%66.8574.6885.93103.55135.15
    5.75%49.4153.0057.6563.9673.03
    6.75%38.5540.3642.5845.3748.98
    7.75%31.1132.0733.1934.5236.15

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 59.94. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-7.9%-7.3%+0.7pp
    EBIT margin5.8%6.0%+0.2pp
    Discount rate5.8%5.6%-0.1pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.