DCF Studio

    BOL.ST · STO · Basic Materials

    Boliden AB (publ)

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    SEK 235.56

    Market price

    SEK 531.40

    Implied upside

    -55.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 16.2% of revenue against depreciation of 7.9%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    SEK 235.56-55.7%
    Exit multiple
    SEK 377.55-29.0%
    Market price
    SEK 531.40

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (SEK). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todaySEK
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueSEK 96.0bnSEK 98.5bnSEK 101.2bnSEK 103.8bnSEK 106.6bn+2.7%
    EBITSEK 12.7bnSEK 13.0bnSEK 13.4bnSEK 13.7bnSEK 14.1bn+2.7%
    NOPATSEK 10.1bnSEK 10.4bnSEK 10.7bnSEK 10.9bnSEK 11.2bn+2.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationSEK 7.6bnSEK 7.8bnSEK 8.0bnSEK 8.2bnSEK 8.4bn+2.7%
    Less capital expenditureSEK -15.5bnSEK -16.0bnSEK -16.4bnSEK -16.8bnSEK -17.3bn+2.7%
    Less increase in working capitalSEK 448.1mSEK 460.0mSEK 472.2mSEK 484.8mSEK 497.6m-2.7%
    Free cashflow to firmSEK 2.6bnSEK 2.7bnSEK 2.8bnSEK 2.8bnSEK 2.9bn+2.7%
    Discount factor0.95130.86100.77930.70530.6383-
    Present valueSEK 2.5bnSEK 2.3bnSEK 2.2bnSEK 2.0bnSEK 1.9bn-7.1%
    Present Value Of The ForecastSEK 10.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.090Reported 1.135, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.29%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.82%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationSEK 150.9bn86.4% of capital
    Total debtSEK 23.8bn13.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.49%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareSEK 235.56

    87% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    SEK 2.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    SEK 11.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.8% of NOPAT)
    SEK -2.7bn
    Capitalised
    SEK 8.6bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    10.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 109.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 70.1bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 80.9bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 14.6bn
    Equity value
    SEK 66.3bn

    Exit at 7.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareSEK 377.55

    91% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 172.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 110.1bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 120.9bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 14.6bn
    Equity value
    SEK 106.3bn

    Spread between methods: 46%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (SEK) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.49%330.08336.64344.06352.59362.54
    9.49%274.37277.08280.00283.16286.62
    10.49%233.14234.35235.56236.78237.99
    11.49%201.95203.02204.08205.14206.21
    12.49%176.06177.00177.94178.88179.82

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 531.40. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year2.7%17.1%+14.5pp
    EBIT margin13.2%23.1%+9.9pp
    Discount rate10.5%6.7%-3.8pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.