DCF Studio

    BPE.MI · MIL · Financial Services

    BPER Banca SpA

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 20.51

    Market price

    EUR 14.20

    Implied upside

    +44.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 20.51+44.4%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 31.65+122.9%
    Market price
    EUR 14.20

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 8.2bnEUR 9.6bnEUR 11.3bnEUR 13.2bnEUR 15.5bn+17.4%
    EBITEUR 2.8bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.5bnEUR 5.2bn+17.4%
    NOPATEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.9bnEUR 3.3bnEUR 3.9bn+17.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 472.0mEUR 554.0mEUR 650.1mEUR 763.0mEUR 895.5m+17.4%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -505.5mEUR -593.3mEUR -696.3mEUR -817.2mEUR -959.1m+17.4%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.7bnEUR -2.0bnEUR -2.3bn+17.4%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 825.5mEUR 968.8mEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.6bn+17.4%
    Discount factor0.96600.90140.84110.78480.7323-
    Present valueEUR 797.4mEUR 873.3mEUR 956.3mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bn+9.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 4.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.786Reported 0.681, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.31%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.13%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 29.8bn54.5% of capital
    Total debtEUR 24.9bn45.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.17%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 20.51

    90% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 3.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (34.9% of NOPAT)
    EUR -1.4bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.6bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 56.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 41.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 45.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 11.7bn
    Equity value
    EUR 34.2bn

    Exit at 13.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 31.65

    93% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 81.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 59.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 64.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 11.7bn
    Equity value
    EUR 52.9bn

    Spread between methods: 43%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.17%32.8533.0333.2133.3933.57
    6.17%25.5225.6625.8125.9526.10
    7.17%20.2720.3920.5120.6320.75
    8.17%16.3416.4416.5416.6416.74
    9.17%13.2913.3713.4613.5513.63

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 14.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year17.4%9.6%-7.8pp
    EBIT margin33.7%27.0%-6.7pp
    Discount rate7.2%8.9%+1.7pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.