DCF Studio

    BR · NYQ · Technology

    Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 156.28

    Market price

    USD 184.22

    Implied upside

    -15.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 156.28-15.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 189.52+2.9%
    Market price
    USD 184.22

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 10.9bn+3.7%
    EBITUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bn+3.7%
    NOPATUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+3.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 376.4mUSD 395.0mUSD 413.2mUSD 431.0mUSD 448.3mUSD 465.0mUSD 480.8mUSD 495.8mUSD 509.7mUSD 522.4m+3.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -120.8mUSD -151.8mUSD -185.0mUSD -220.3mUSD -257.6mUSD -296.6mUSD -337.2mUSD -379.1mUSD -422.0mUSD -465.7m+16.2%
    Capex, % of revenue1.5%1.8%2.1%2.4%2.8%3.1%3.4%3.7%4.0%4.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -48.5mUSD -49.4mUSD -48.6mUSD -47.5mUSD -46.1mUSD -44.3mUSD -42.2mUSD -39.8mUSD -37.0mUSD -34.0m-3.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+1.8%
    Discount factor0.96150.88890.82180.75980.70250.64940.60040.55510.51320.4745-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 958.3mUSD 902.0mUSD 846.2mUSD 791.3mUSD 737.5mUSD 685.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 9.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.932Reported 0.898, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.83%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 11.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 20.8bn85.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.5bn14.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.16%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 156.28

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (16.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -275.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    15.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 25.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 21.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.3bn

    Exit at 14.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 189.52

    63% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 16.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 22.2bn

    Spread between methods: 19%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.16%222.91235.01250.75271.83301.26
    7.16%179.60185.74193.43203.24216.03
    8.16%149.28152.41156.28161.10167.18
    9.16%126.86128.35130.22132.55135.46
    10.16%109.62110.17110.91111.89113.16

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 184.22. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year7.2%3.8%5.6%
    EBIT margin17.4%16.4%19.4%
    Discount rate-8.2%7.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.