DCF Studio

    BSX · NYQ · Healthcare

    Boston Scientific Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 29.84

    Market price

    USD 44.32

    Implied upside

    -32.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 29.84-32.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 37.54-15.3%
    Market price
    USD 44.32

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 21.0bnUSD 21.0bnUSD 21.1bnUSD 21.3bnUSD 21.6bnUSD 21.9bnUSD 22.2bnUSD 22.7bnUSD 23.2bnUSD 23.7bn+1.4%
    EBITUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bn+1.4%
    NOPATUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bn+1.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bn+1.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bn+6.6%
    Capex, % of revenue5.6%6.0%6.3%6.7%7.0%7.4%7.7%8.1%8.4%8.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -223.0mUSD -14.4mUSD -29.1mUSD -43.9mUSD -59.0mUSD -74.6mUSD -90.8mUSD -107.7mUSD -125.5mUSD -144.3m-4.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.0bn-0.8%
    Discount factor0.96500.89860.83670.77910.72550.67560.62910.58580.54550.5079-
    Present valueUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 22.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.722Reported 0.585, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.95%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 11.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 64.2bn84.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 11.4bn15.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.39%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 29.84

    58% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (33.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.5bn
    Capitalised
    USD 2.9bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 61.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 31.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 54.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 44.6bn

    Exit at 13.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 37.54

    65% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 83.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 42.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 65.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 56.1bn

    Spread between methods: 23%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.39%48.6349.8451.6754.4959.11
    6.39%37.7737.6837.7037.8838.31
    7.39%30.8130.3229.8429.3528.87
    8.39%26.3525.9525.5425.1424.73
    9.39%22.8522.5122.1621.8221.48

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 44.32. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year16.5%1.7%6.0%
    EBIT margin19.8%17.7%26.7%
    Discount rate-7.4%5.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.