DCF Studio

    BXP · NYQ · Real Estate

    BXP, Inc.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    USD 3.36

    Market price

    USD 63.47

    Implied upside

    -94.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 5.3% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.00% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 25.48% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 3.36-94.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 57.84-8.9%
    Market price
    USD 63.47

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bn+2.4%
    EBITUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+2.4%
    NOPATUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn+2.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 916.9mUSD 938.5mUSD 960.8mUSD 983.9mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+2.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -916.9mUSD -979.4mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bn+6.3%
    Capex, % of revenue25.5%26.6%27.7%28.8%29.9%31.0%32.1%33.2%34.3%35.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 12.2mUSD 8.9mUSD 9.2mUSD 9.5mUSD 9.8mUSD 10.1mUSD 10.4mUSD 10.8mUSD 11.1mUSD 11.5m+0.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 986.2mUSD 961.5m-1.8%
    Discount factor0.96300.89300.82820.76800.71220.66050.61250.56800.52680.4885-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 999.3mUSD 914.2mUSD 835.2mUSD 762.1mUSD 694.3mUSD 631.5mUSD 573.4mUSD 519.5mUSD 469.7m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.030Reported 1.045, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.25%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a B rating at 1.6x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 11.5bn39.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 17.4bn60.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.83%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 3.36

    54% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 961.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -445.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 950.0m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 18.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 533.8m

    Exit at 14.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 57.84

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 36.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 9.2bn

    Spread between methods: 178%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.83%42.1240.1638.2036.2334.27
    6.83%21.3919.8118.2216.6415.06
    7.83%5.974.673.362.050.75
    8.83%-5.94-7.04-8.13-9.23-10.32
    9.83%-15.42-16.35-17.28-18.21-19.15

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 63.47. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.9%2.5%8.0%
    EBIT margin34.1%31.2%49.5%
    Discount rate-7.8%4.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.