C38U.SI · SES · Real Estate
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD 1.09
Market price
SGD 2.29
Implied upside
-52.2%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 25.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 1.7bn | SGD 1.7bn | SGD 1.8bn | SGD 1.9bn | SGD 2.0bn | +3.9% |
| EBIT | SGD 1.1bn | SGD 1.2bn | SGD 1.2bn | SGD 1.3bn | SGD 1.3bn | +3.9% |
| NOPAT | SGD 1.1bn | SGD 1.2bn | SGD 1.2bn | SGD 1.2bn | SGD 1.3bn | +3.9% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 1.8m | SGD 1.8m | SGD 1.9m | SGD 2.0m | SGD 2.0m | +3.9% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -190.8m | SGD -198.3m | SGD -206.1m | SGD -214.3m | SGD -222.7m | +3.9% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD -63.9m | SGD -66.4m | SGD -69.0m | SGD -71.7m | SGD -74.6m | +3.9% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 857.4m | SGD 891.2m | SGD 926.4m | SGD 962.9m | SGD 1.0bn | +3.9% |
| Discount factor | 0.9669 | 0.9039 | 0.8450 | 0.7900 | 0.7386 | - |
| Present value | SGD 829.0m | SGD 805.6m | SGD 782.8m | SGD 760.7m | SGD 739.2m | -2.8% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 3.9bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.664 | Reported 0.499, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 8.52% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 18.1bn | 64.3% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 10.0bn | 35.7% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 0.7% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.97% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
78% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 1.0bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 1.3bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (35.9% of NOPAT)
- SGD -465.1m
- Capitalised
- SGD 831.0m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 7.0%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 19.1bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 14.1bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 18.0bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 9.9bn
- Equity value
- SGD 8.1bn
Exit at 20.0x EBITDA
83% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 26.2bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 19.3bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 23.2bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 9.9bn
- Equity value
- SGD 13.4bn
Spread between methods: 49%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.97% | 2.09 | 2.10 | 2.12 | 2.13 | 2.15 |
| 5.97% | 1.50 | 1.51 | 1.52 | 1.53 | 1.54 |
| 6.97% | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 |
| 7.97% | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| 8.97% | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 2.29. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 3.9% | 14.2% | +10.3pp |
| Discount rate | 7.0% | 4.7% | -2.2pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.