C6L.SI · SES · Industrials
Singapore Airlines Limited
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD 14.62
Market price
SGD 6.51
Implied upside
+124.5%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 21.5bn | SGD 22.6bn | SGD 23.7bn | SGD 24.9bn | SGD 26.1bn | +4.9% |
| EBIT | SGD 2.7bn | SGD 2.8bn | SGD 3.0bn | SGD 3.1bn | SGD 3.3bn | +4.9% |
| NOPAT | SGD 2.3bn | SGD 2.4bn | SGD 2.5bn | SGD 2.6bn | SGD 2.8bn | +4.9% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 2.6bn | SGD 2.7bn | SGD 2.8bn | SGD 3.0bn | SGD 3.1bn | +4.9% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -2.1bn | SGD -2.2bn | SGD -2.3bn | SGD -2.5bn | SGD -2.6bn | +4.9% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD 30.2m | SGD 31.7m | SGD 33.2m | SGD 34.8m | SGD 36.6m | -4.9% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 2.8bn | SGD 2.9bn | SGD 3.1bn | SGD 3.2bn | SGD 3.4bn | +4.9% |
| Discount factor | 0.9676 | 0.9058 | 0.8480 | 0.7939 | 0.7432 | - |
| Present value | SGD 2.7bn | SGD 2.6bn | SGD 2.6bn | SGD 2.5bn | SGD 2.5bn | -1.8% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 12.9bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.660 | Reported 0.493, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 8.49% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 20.5bn | 65.9% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 10.6bn | 34.1% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 14.6% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.82% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
73% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 3.4bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 2.9bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.9% of NOPAT)
- SGD -915.3m
- Capitalised
- SGD 2.0bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 7.8%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 46.3bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 34.4bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 47.4bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 2.1bn
- Equity value
- SGD 45.2bn
Exit at 4.5x EBITDA
62% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 28.8bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 21.4bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 34.4bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 2.1bn
- Equity value
- SGD 32.2bn
Spread between methods: 34%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.82% | 22.23 | 23.90 | 26.26 | 29.90 | 36.26 |
| 5.82% | 17.24 | 17.88 | 18.70 | 19.79 | 21.33 |
| 6.82% | 14.12 | 14.34 | 14.62 | 14.95 | 15.37 |
| 7.82% | 11.97 | 12.02 | 12.06 | 12.10 | 12.15 |
| 8.82% | 10.60 | 10.63 | 10.67 | 10.70 | 10.74 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 6.51. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 4.9% | -11.6% | -16.5pp |
| EBIT margin | 12.5% | 5.4% | -7.1pp |
| Discount rate | 6.8% | 14.3% | +7.5pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.