DCF Studio

    CA.PA · PAR · Consumer Defensive

    Carrefour SA

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 60.72

    Market price

    EUR 16.43

    Implied upside

    +269.5%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 2.4x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 3.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 60.72+269.5%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 31.36+90.8%
    Market price
    EUR 16.43

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 84.3bnEUR 84.7bnEUR 85.0bnEUR 85.3bnEUR 85.6bn+0.4%
    EBITEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bn+0.4%
    NOPATEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.7bn+0.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bn+0.4%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bn+0.4%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 133.9mEUR 134.4mEUR 134.9mEUR 135.4mEUR 135.9m-0.4%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bn+0.4%
    Discount factor0.96920.91050.85540.80350.7549-
    Present valueEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.8bn-5.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 10.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.737Reported 0.607, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.62%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.20%Implied cost of debt of 14.8% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 2bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes.
    Market capitalisationEUR 11.6bn68.9% of capital
    Total debtEUR 5.3bn31.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.45%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 60.72

    75% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 2.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (17.4% of NOPAT)
    EUR -329.2m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 40.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 30.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 40.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -1.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 41.6bn

    Exit at 3.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 31.36

    51% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 13.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 10.4bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 20.4bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -1.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 21.5bn

    Spread between methods: 64%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.45%86.6498.02115.21144.20203.66
    5.45%66.4271.7178.7788.67103.62
    6.45%54.3457.1860.7265.2771.34
    7.45%46.2947.9549.9352.3455.34
    8.45%40.5341.5542.7344.1145.76

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 16.43. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year0.4%-10.8%-11.2pp
    EBIT margin2.7%0.3%-2.3pp
    Discount rate6.4%24.0%+17.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.