DCF Studio

    CABK.MC · MCE · Financial Services

    CaixaBank, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 60.09

    Market price

    EUR 12.99

    Implied upside

    +362.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedOnly 2 year(s) of history available to anchor assumptions on.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 60.09+362.4%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 56.40+334.0%
    Market price
    EUR 12.99

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn23bn46bnFY25FY26FY27FY28FY29
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY25FY26FY27FY28FY29CAGR
    RevenueEUR 23.1bnEUR 31.5bnEUR 42.9bnEUR 58.5bnEUR 79.7bn+36.3%
    EBITEUR 9.7bnEUR 13.2bnEUR 18.0bnEUR 24.5bnEUR 33.4bn+36.3%
    NOPATEUR 7.3bnEUR 9.9bnEUR 13.5bnEUR 18.4bnEUR 25.0bn+36.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 4.2bn+36.3%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.9bnEUR -2.5bnEUR -3.5bnEUR -4.7bn+36.3%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 6.1bnEUR 8.4bnEUR 11.4bnEUR 15.6bnEUR 21.2bn-36.3%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 13.3bnEUR 18.1bnEUR 24.6bnEUR 33.5bnEUR 45.7bn+36.3%
    Discount factor0.97120.91610.86410.81500.7688-
    Present valueEUR 12.9bnEUR 16.5bnEUR 21.3bnEUR 27.3bnEUR 35.1bn+28.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 113.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.406Reported 0.114, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.84%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.20%Implied cost of debt of 18.7% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 2bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes.
    Market capitalisationEUR 90.3bn62.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 54.4bn37.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.02%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 60.09

    74% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 45.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 25.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (41.5% of NOPAT)
    EUR -10.4bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 14.6bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 426.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 327.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 441.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 4.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 436.4bn

    Exit at 10.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 56.40

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 391.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 301.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 414.2bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 4.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 409.6bn

    Spread between methods: 6%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.02%100.25108.29121.46147.32222.65
    5.02%73.2474.5976.3678.8982.91
    6.02%59.6559.8760.0960.3160.53
    7.02%51.2651.4551.6351.8151.99
    8.02%44.9545.1045.2545.4145.56

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 12.99. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year36.3%1.3%-34.9pp
    EBIT margin41.9%5.1%-36.8pp
    Discount rate6.0%27.4%+21.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.