DCF Studio

    CASY · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    Casey's General Stores, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 251.71

    Market price

    USD 668.17

    Implied upside

    -62.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-04-30

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 3.4% of revenue against depreciation of 2.4%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 251.71-62.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 480.99-28.0%
    Market price
    USD 668.17

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m367m734mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 20.9bnUSD 21.0bnUSD 21.1bnUSD 21.3bnUSD 21.5bnUSD 21.8bnUSD 22.2bnUSD 22.6bnUSD 23.1bnUSD 23.7bn+1.4%
    EBITUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn+1.4%
    NOPATUSD 823.0mUSD 824.9mUSD 829.2mUSD 835.9mUSD 845.0mUSD 856.6mUSD 870.7mUSD 887.6mUSD 907.3mUSD 929.9m+1.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 498.7mUSD 499.9mUSD 502.5mUSD 506.5mUSD 512.0mUSD 519.0mUSD 527.6mUSD 537.8mUSD 549.8mUSD 563.5m+1.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -711.2mUSD -708.6mUSD -707.9mUSD -709.2mUSD -712.5mUSD -717.7mUSD -725.0mUSD -734.4mUSD -745.9mUSD -759.6m+0.7%
    Capex, % of revenue3.4%3.4%3.4%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.2%3.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 980.5kUSD 14.5kUSD 31.7kUSD 49.2kUSD 67.0kUSD 85.3kUSD 104.3kUSD 124.1kUSD 145.0kUSD 167.1k+17.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 611.4mUSD 616.3mUSD 623.9mUSD 633.3mUSD 644.6mUSD 658.0mUSD 673.5mUSD 691.2mUSD 711.3mUSD 734.0m+2.0%
    Discount factor0.96360.89480.83090.77150.71640.66530.61770.57360.53260.4946-
    Present valueUSD 589.2mUSD 551.4mUSD 518.4mUSD 488.6mUSD 461.8mUSD 437.7mUSD 416.0mUSD 396.5mUSD 378.9mUSD 363.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.724Reported 0.588, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.96%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 24.7bn89.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.9bn10.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.69%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 251.71

    61% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 734.0m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 929.9m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (21.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -196.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 733.8m
    ROIC (reported)
    11.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 14.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 9.4bn

    Exit at 18.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 480.99

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 31.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 15.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.9bn

    Spread between methods: 63%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.69%389.34412.70444.24488.55554.35
    6.69%301.55311.75325.01342.59366.50
    7.69%242.23246.33251.71258.77268.11
    8.69%199.48200.51202.08204.35207.51
    9.69%167.24166.63166.25166.15166.39

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 668.17. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.2%3.0%13.2%
    EBIT margin5.9%5.0%11.1%
    Discount rate-7.7%4.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.