DCF Studio

    CBK.DE · GER · Financial Services

    Commerzbank AG

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 60.06

    Market price

    EUR 40.64

    Implied upside

    +47.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 60.06+47.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 50.78+25.0%
    Market price
    EUR 40.64

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 13.9bnEUR 15.0bnEUR 16.1bnEUR 17.3bnEUR 18.6bn+7.6%
    EBITEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.1bnEUR 4.4bnEUR 4.7bnEUR 5.1bn+7.6%
    NOPATEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.9bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.6bn+7.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 950.1mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bn+7.6%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.3bnEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.5bn+7.6%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -979.6mEUR -1.1bnEUR -1.1bnEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.3bn+7.6%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.0bn+7.6%
    Discount factor0.97690.93220.88960.84900.8102-
    Present valueEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.7bn+2.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 7.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.785Reported 0.679, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.31%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.60%Implied cost of debt of 17.7% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 2bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes.
    Market capitalisationEUR 43.9bn37.7% of capital
    Total debtEUR 72.5bn62.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate29.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC4.79%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 60.06

    89% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 2.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 3.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (52.2% of NOPAT)
    EUR -1.9bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.7bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    4.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 77.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 62.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 70.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 4.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 65.9bn

    Exit at 10.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 50.78

    87% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 65.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 52.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 60.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 4.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 55.7bn

    Spread between methods: 17%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    2.79%112.84117.51136.55——
    3.79%77.8178.1878.5578.91102.90
    4.79%59.5059.7860.0660.3460.62
    5.79%47.5747.7948.0148.2348.45
    6.79%39.1939.3739.5539.7339.91

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 40.64. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year7.6%-2.5%-10.1pp
    EBIT margin27.4%19.8%-7.6pp
    Discount rate4.8%6.6%+1.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.