DCF Studio

    CBRE · NYQ · Real Estate

    CBRE Group, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 43.41

    Market price

    USD 136.75

    Implied upside

    -68.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.89% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.90% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 23.5x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 43.41-68.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 136.14-0.4%
    Market price
    USD 136.75

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 46.6bnUSD 51.6bnUSD 56.6bnUSD 61.5bnUSD 66.2bnUSD 70.6bnUSD 74.5bnUSD 77.9bnUSD 80.7bnUSD 82.7bn+6.6%
    EBITUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bn+6.6%
    NOPATUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bn+6.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 886.6mUSD 981.9mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bn+6.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -886.6mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.3bn+11.0%
    Capex, % of revenue1.9%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -498.9mUSD -415.6mUSD -416.1mUSD -408.1mUSD -390.9mUSD -364.2mUSD -327.9mUSD -282.4mUSD -228.5mUSD -167.5m-11.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 893.7mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+6.8%
    Discount factor0.95810.87940.80720.74090.68010.62420.57300.52590.48270.4431-
    Present valueUSD 856.2mUSD 948.6mUSD 945.1mUSD 933.3mUSD 913.3mUSD 885.8mUSD 851.4mUSD 810.8mUSD 765.2mUSD 715.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.152Reported 1.227, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.77%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 39.4bn79.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 10.0bn20.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate17.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.95%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 43.41

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -691.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.8bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 28.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 21.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.1bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 136.14

    82% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 91.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 40.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 49.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 40.9bn

    Spread between methods: 103%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.95%72.3372.2972.5173.0974.17
    7.95%55.8854.8153.7452.6951.65
    8.95%45.3044.3543.4142.4741.52
    9.95%37.0236.2135.4134.6133.80
    10.95%30.3129.6228.9328.2427.55

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 136.75. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year9.6%7.4%19.5%
    EBIT margin4.3%3.6%7.9%
    Discount rate-8.9%5.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.