DCF Studio

    CCI · NYQ · Real Estate

    Crown Castle Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -8.74

    Market price

    USD 87.03

    Implied upside

    -110.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 8.02% of revenue against depreciation of 18.44%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 18.44% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 24.3x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -8.74-110.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 27.19-68.8%
    Market price
    USD 87.03

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bn+2.0%
    EBITUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bn+2.0%
    NOPATUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+2.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 743.2mUSD 755.0mUSD 767.8mUSD 781.7mUSD 796.7mUSD 813.0mUSD 830.5mUSD 849.3mUSD 869.6mUSD 891.3m+2.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -743.2mUSD -813.1mUSD -886.0mUSD -962.2mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bn+8.2%
    Capex, % of revenue18.4%19.9%21.3%22.7%24.1%25.5%27.0%28.4%29.8%31.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 15.4mUSD -4.2mUSD -4.6mUSD -5.0mUSD -5.4mUSD -5.8mUSD -6.3mUSD -6.8mUSD -7.3mUSD -7.8m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn-1.9%
    Discount factor0.96270.89230.82710.76660.71050.65860.61040.56580.52440.4860-
    Present valueUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 975.0mUSD 887.1mUSD 806.5mUSD 732.7m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 11.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.939Reported 0.909, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.87%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.73%Risk-free + 184bp, the spread for a BB rating at 2.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 38.0bn56.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 29.6bn43.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate1.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.89%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -8.74

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -617.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 28.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 29.5bn
    Equity value
    USD -3.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 27.19

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 61.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 29.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 41.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 29.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 11.9bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.89%17.3819.4422.3226.4432.61
    6.89%2.312.673.284.225.64
    7.89%-8.06-8.43-8.74-8.98-9.13
    8.89%-15.42-16.03-16.64-17.24-17.85
    9.89%-20.62-21.13-21.65-22.17-22.68

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 87.03. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-15.2%1.3%13.2%
    Discount rate-7.9%4.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.