DCF Studio

    CCL · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Carnival Corporation Ltd.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -23.65

    Market price

    USD 30.05

    Implied upside

    -178.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-11-30

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 22.0% of revenue against depreciation of 12.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -23.65-178.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD -12.10-140.3%
    Market price
    USD 30.05

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -2305m-1010m284mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 27.7bnUSD 28.6bnUSD 29.5bnUSD 30.4bnUSD 31.2bnUSD 32.1bnUSD 33.0bnUSD 33.9bnUSD 34.8bnUSD 35.6bn+2.8%
    EBITUSD 291.2mUSD 300.4mUSD 309.7mUSD 318.9mUSD 328.2mUSD 337.5mUSD 346.8mUSD 356.0mUSD 365.2mUSD 374.3m+2.8%
    NOPATUSD 290.0mUSD 299.1mUSD 308.3mUSD 317.5mUSD 326.8mUSD 336.0mUSD 345.2mUSD 354.4mUSD 363.6mUSD 372.7m+2.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bn+2.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -6.1bnUSD -6.0bnUSD -5.9bnUSD -5.7bnUSD -5.6bnUSD -5.4bnUSD -5.2bnUSD -5.0bnUSD -4.8bnUSD -4.6bn-3.1%
    Capex, % of revenue22.0%21.0%19.9%18.9%17.9%16.9%15.9%14.9%13.9%12.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 3.4mUSD 2.7mUSD 2.7mUSD 2.7mUSD 2.7mUSD 2.7mUSD 2.7mUSD 2.7mUSD 2.7mUSD 2.7m+2.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.0bnUSD -739.6mUSD -416.2mUSD -75.0mUSD 283.9m-
    Discount factor0.95270.86460.78470.71220.64630.58660.53240.48320.43850.3980-
    Present valueUSD -2.2bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -861.3mUSD -613.0mUSD -393.7mUSD -201.1mUSD -32.9mUSD 113.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -8.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.976Reported 2.456, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity13.25%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 40.4bn59.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 28.0bn40.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.18%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -23.65

    -21% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 283.9m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 372.7m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -91.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 281.2m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    10.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 3.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 1.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD -7.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 26.1bn
    Equity value
    USD -33.2bn

    Exit at 9.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD -12.10

    194% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 44.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 9.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 26.1bn
    Equity value
    USD -17.0bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.18%-23.33-23.34-23.34-23.33-23.32
    9.18%-23.51-23.53-23.56-23.58-23.60
    10.18%-23.60-23.62-23.65-23.68-23.70
    11.18%-23.63-23.65-23.67-23.70-23.72
    12.18%-23.63-23.65-23.67-23.69-23.71

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 30.05. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year29.8%3.0%73.3%
    EBIT margin16.8%1.1%24.7%
    Discount rate-10.2%2.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.