DCF Studio

    CEG · NMS · Utilities

    Constellation Energy Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 115.20

    Market price

    USD 257.25

    Implied upside

    -55.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 9.8% of revenue against depreciation of 7.8%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 115.20-55.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 236.54-8.1%
    Market price
    USD 257.25

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 35.8bnUSD 37.2bnUSD 38.5bnUSD 39.8bnUSD 41.0bnUSD 42.3bnUSD 43.5bnUSD 44.8bnUSD 45.9bnUSD 47.1bn+3.1%
    EBITUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bn+3.1%
    NOPATUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bn+3.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bn+3.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -4.1bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -4.4bn+2.5%
    Capex, % of revenue9.8%9.7%9.7%9.6%9.6%9.5%9.5%9.4%9.4%9.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -1.0bnUSD -128.4mUSD -127.8mUSD -126.9mUSD -125.5mUSD -123.7mUSD -121.5mUSD -118.9mUSD -115.9mUSD -112.5m-21.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bn+9.6%
    Discount factor0.95760.87810.80530.73850.67720.62100.56950.52220.47890.4391-
    Present valueUSD 1.4bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 17.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.085Reported 1.127, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.48%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.87%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 91.1bn91.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 9.0bn9.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.05%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 115.20

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (17.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -746.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 54.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 23.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 41.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 36.2bn

    Exit at 15.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 236.54

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 141.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 61.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 79.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 74.3bn

    Spread between methods: 69%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.05%162.26167.83174.87183.94195.88
    8.05%133.58136.27139.63143.87149.28
    9.05%112.59113.73115.20117.08119.48
    10.05%96.5796.8497.2897.9198.79
    11.05%83.9683.7383.5883.5383.59

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 257.25. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year1.5%6.3%15.9%
    EBIT margin20.6%11.2%22.2%
    Discount rate-9.0%5.7%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.