DCF Studio

    CF · NYQ · Basic Materials

    CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 170.35

    Market price

    USD 120.33

    Implied upside

    +41.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 170.35+41.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 121.71+1.1%
    Market price
    USD 120.33

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.3bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.6bn-4.3%
    EBITUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bn-4.3%
    NOPATUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bn-4.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.0bnUSD 906.2mUSD 822.9mUSD 761.0mUSD 716.5mUSD 686.5mUSD 669.3mUSD 663.7mUSD 669.2mUSD 685.9m-4.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.1bnUSD -988.7mUSD -916.1mUSD -864.2mUSD -829.6mUSD -810.2mUSD -804.8mUSD -812.8mUSD -834.4mUSD -870.6m-2.4%
    Capex, % of revenue13.1%13.4%13.6%13.9%14.2%14.4%14.7%15.0%15.3%15.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -116.8mUSD 86.3mUSD 65.1mUSD 48.4mUSD 34.8mUSD 23.4mUSD 13.5mUSD 4.4mUSD -4.3mUSD -13.1m-21.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bn-4.8%
    Discount factor0.96570.90050.83980.78310.73030.68100.63510.59220.55230.5150-
    Present valueUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 950.3mUSD 864.7mUSD 800.0mUSD 752.3m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 12.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.692Reported 0.541, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.82%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 16.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 18.2bn83.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.6bn16.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.24%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 170.35

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (11.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -184.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    22.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 31.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 16.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 29.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 27.6bn

    Exit at 6.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 121.71

    40% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 16.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 21.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 19.7bn

    Spread between methods: 33%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.24%236.66257.01285.04325.92390.76
    6.24%188.78199.14212.46230.08254.40
    7.24%157.49163.25170.35179.28190.76
    8.24%135.40138.75142.79147.71153.79
    9.24%118.96120.94123.30126.13129.55

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 120.33. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-14.1%-2.3%-6.2%
    EBIT margin49.8%36.5%26.5%
    Discount rate-7.2%9.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.