CFR.SW · EBS · Consumer Cyclical
Compagnie Financière Richemont SA
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
CHF 205.35
Market price
CHF 168.85
Implied upside
+21.6%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · EUR model at 0.9436
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 23.3bn | EUR 24.2bn | EUR 25.2bn | EUR 26.2bn | EUR 27.2bn | +4.0% |
| EBIT | EUR 5.2bn | EUR 5.5bn | EUR 5.7bn | EUR 5.9bn | EUR 6.1bn | +4.0% |
| NOPAT | EUR 4.5bn | EUR 4.6bn | EUR 4.8bn | EUR 5.0bn | EUR 5.2bn | +4.0% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | EUR 1.7bn | EUR 1.7bn | EUR 1.8bn | EUR 1.9bn | EUR 2.0bn | +4.0% |
| Less capital expenditure | EUR -1.2bn | EUR -1.2bn | EUR -1.3bn | EUR -1.3bn | EUR -1.4bn | +4.0% |
| Less increase in working capital | EUR -786.2m | EUR -817.4m | EUR -849.8m | EUR -883.4m | EUR -918.5m | +4.0% |
| Free cashflow to firm | EUR 4.2bn | EUR 4.3bn | EUR 4.5bn | EUR 4.7bn | EUR 4.9bn | +4.0% |
| Discount factor | 0.9724 | 0.9196 | 0.8696 | 0.8223 | 0.7776 | - |
| Present value | EUR 4.1bn | EUR 4.0bn | EUR 3.9bn | EUR 3.9bn | EUR 3.8bn | -1.7% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | EUR 19.6bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 0.50% | CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 5.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 1.048 | Reported 1.072, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 6.27% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 2.29% | Interest expense / average total debt |
| Market capitalisation | EUR 99.3bn | 88.0% of capital |
| Total debt | EUR 13.5bn | 12.0% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 15.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 5.75% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
84% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- EUR 4.9bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- EUR 5.3bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.0% of NOPAT)
- EUR -1.1bn
- Capitalised
- EUR 4.3bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 12.5%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 135.0bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 105.0bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 124.6bn
- Less net debt
- EUR -3.7bn
- Equity value
- EUR 128.3bn
Exit at 15.3x EBITDA
83% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 123.8bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 96.3bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 115.9bn
- Less net debt
- EUR -3.7bn
- Equity value
- EUR 119.6bn
Spread between methods: 7%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 3.75% | 346.61 | 417.95 | 546.21 | 845.64 | 2353.11 |
| 4.75% | 242.82 | 269.89 | 308.86 | 369.97 | 479.83 |
| 5.75% | 187.89 | 200.81 | 217.63 | 240.45 | 273.31 |
| 6.75% | 153.89 | 160.82 | 169.31 | 179.99 | 193.88 |
| 7.75% | 130.78 | 134.72 | 139.37 | 144.95 | 151.78 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 178.94. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 4.0% | -1.4% | -5.3pp |
| EBIT margin | 22.5% | 18.4% | -4.2pp |
| Discount rate | 5.7% | 6.5% | +0.8pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.