DCF Studio

    CHD · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    Church & Dwight Co., Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 74.44

    Market price

    USD 110.45

    Implied upside

    -32.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 21.0x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 74.44-32.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 102.26-7.4%
    Market price
    USD 110.45

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.4bn+3.4%
    EBITUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+3.4%
    NOPATUSD 903.2mUSD 942.0mUSD 980.3mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+3.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 246.9mUSD 257.5mUSD 268.0mUSD 278.3mUSD 288.4mUSD 298.2mUSD 307.7mUSD 316.8mUSD 325.4mUSD 333.5m+3.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -188.2mUSD -206.2mUSD -224.9mUSD -244.2mUSD -264.1mUSD -284.6mUSD -305.4mUSD -326.6mUSD -348.0mUSD -369.5m+7.8%
    Capex, % of revenue3.0%3.2%3.3%3.5%3.6%3.8%3.9%4.1%4.2%4.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -3.3mUSD -21.2mUSD -21.0mUSD -20.6mUSD -20.2mUSD -19.6mUSD -18.9mUSD -18.1mUSD -17.3mUSD -16.3m+19.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 958.6mUSD 972.1mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+2.2%
    Discount factor0.96540.89970.83850.78140.72820.67870.63250.58950.54940.5120-
    Present valueUSD 925.4mUSD 874.6mUSD 840.6mUSD 806.1mUSD 771.3mUSD 736.3mUSD 701.3mUSD 666.5mUSD 631.9mUSD 597.8m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.631Reported 0.450, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.57%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 11.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 26.1bn92.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.2bn7.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.30%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 74.44

    62% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (18.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -257.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    13.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 24.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 102.26

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 37.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 26.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 25.0bn

    Spread between methods: 31%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.30%110.79119.15130.69147.49173.94
    6.30%86.3090.1695.18101.89111.17
    7.30%70.2672.1174.4477.4481.36
    8.30%58.9459.7860.8462.1963.91
    9.30%50.5350.8251.2251.7552.45

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 110.45. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.9%3.1%7.5%
    EBIT margin19.1%18.3%27.4%
    Discount rate-7.3%5.8%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.