DCF Studio

    CHRW · NMS · Industrials

    C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 82.89

    Market price

    USD 128.71

    Implied upside

    -35.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.46% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.0% of revenue against depreciation of 0.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 82.89-35.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 116.50-9.5%
    Market price
    USD 128.71

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m439m879mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 19.1bnUSD 20.4bnUSD 21.6bnUSD 22.8bnUSD 24.0bnUSD 25.1bnUSD 26.1bnUSD 27.0bnUSD 27.8bnUSD 28.5bn+4.6%
    EBITUSD 798.1mUSD 851.3mUSD 903.6mUSD 954.4mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn+4.6%
    NOPATUSD 642.5mUSD 685.4mUSD 727.5mUSD 768.4mUSD 807.6mUSD 844.6mUSD 878.9mUSD 910.0mUSD 937.5mUSD 961.0m+4.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 101.1mUSD 107.9mUSD 114.5mUSD 121.0mUSD 127.1mUSD 133.0mUSD 138.4mUSD 143.3mUSD 147.6mUSD 151.3m+4.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -190.9mUSD -195.9mUSD -199.7mUSD -202.3mUSD -203.6mUSD -203.4mUSD -201.8mUSD -198.7mUSD -194.2mUSD -188.3m-0.2%
    Capex, % of revenue1.0%1.0%0.9%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -185.2mUSD -82.5mUSD -81.1mUSD -78.8mUSD -75.6mUSD -71.3mUSD -66.1mUSD -60.0mUSD -53.0mUSD -45.2m-14.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 367.7mUSD 514.8mUSD 561.1mUSD 608.2mUSD 655.6mUSD 702.8mUSD 749.3mUSD 794.6mUSD 837.9mUSD 878.8m+10.2%
    Discount factor0.95970.88400.81420.74990.69070.63620.58600.53970.49710.4578-
    Present valueUSD 352.9mUSD 455.1mUSD 456.8mUSD 456.1mUSD 452.8mUSD 447.1mUSD 439.1mUSD 428.8mUSD 416.5mUSD 402.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.964Reported 0.947, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.97%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 11.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 14.9bn91.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.4bn8.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.57%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 82.89

    62% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 878.8m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (12.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -132.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 905.4m
    ROIC (reported)
    19.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 15.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 10.1bn

    Exit at 18.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 116.50

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 24.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.2bn

    Spread between methods: 34%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.57%116.34122.94131.29142.13156.67
    7.57%94.1297.79102.28107.86114.94
    8.57%78.2780.3782.8985.9589.71
    9.57%66.4267.6169.0570.7672.83
    10.57%57.2357.8958.6759.6260.76

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 128.71. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-13.1%5.8%11.0%
    EBIT margin5.1%4.2%6.2%
    Discount rate-8.6%6.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.