DCF Studio

    CHTR · NMS · Communication Services

    Charter Communications, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 2409.67

    Market price

    USD 115.54

    Implied upside

    +1985.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 20.9x the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 2409.67+1985.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 926.74+702.1%
    Market price
    USD 115.54

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn7bn14bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 58.9bnUSD 65.7bnUSD 72.5bnUSD 79.2bnUSD 85.6bnUSD 91.6bnUSD 97.0bnUSD 101.6bnUSD 105.3bnUSD 107.9bn+7.0%
    EBITUSD 13.8bnUSD 15.4bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 18.6bnUSD 20.1bnUSD 21.5bnUSD 22.8bnUSD 23.9bnUSD 24.7bnUSD 25.3bn+7.0%
    NOPATUSD 10.9bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 14.7bnUSD 15.9bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 18.0bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 19.5bnUSD 20.0bn+7.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 9.4bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.7bnUSD 14.7bnUSD 15.5bnUSD 16.3bnUSD 16.9bnUSD 17.3bn+7.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -11.7bnUSD -13.1bnUSD -14.6bnUSD -16.0bnUSD -17.5bnUSD -18.8bnUSD -20.0bnUSD -21.1bnUSD -22.0bnUSD -22.7bn+7.7%
    Capex, % of revenue19.9%20.0%20.1%20.3%20.4%20.5%20.7%20.8%20.9%21.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -159.6mUSD -262.4mUSD -263.9mUSD -259.7mUSD -249.2mUSD -232.2mUSD -208.5mUSD -178.5mUSD -142.7mUSD -102.0m-4.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 8.5bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.6bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.8bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 14.5bn+6.1%
    Discount factor0.97480.92640.88040.83670.79510.75560.71810.68240.64850.6163-
    Present valueUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 8.9bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 91.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.820Reported 0.731, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.36%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.00%Risk-free + 111bp, the spread for a BBB rating at 2.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 15.0bn13.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 97.1bn86.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.23%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 2409.67

    79% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 14.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 20.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -5.5bn
    Capitalised
    USD 14.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    9.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 547.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 337.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 428.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 96.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 331.9bn

    Exit at 5.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 926.74

    59% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 216.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 133.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 224.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 96.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 127.7bn

    Spread between methods: 89%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.23%5368.387041.6711045.3532731.23—
    4.23%3099.723532.274227.485506.248571.45
    5.23%2050.522199.172409.652723.603230.83
    6.23%1446.831497.951567.851665.251805.28
    7.23%1055.211065.931082.701107.641144.05

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 115.54. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.5%7.0%-7.6%
    EBIT margin24.3%23.5%6.7%
    Discount rate-5.2%13.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.