DCF Studio

    CI · NYQ · Healthcare

    The Cigna Group

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 807.74

    Market price

    USD 295.19

    Implied upside

    +173.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.64% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 807.74+173.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 579.63+96.4%
    Market price
    USD 295.19

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn6bn12bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 287.4bnUSD 299.2bnUSD 310.8bnUSD 322.2bnUSD 333.4bnUSD 344.4bnUSD 355.0bnUSD 365.3bnUSD 375.2bnUSD 384.6bn+3.3%
    EBITUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.3bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.0bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.7bn+3.3%
    NOPATUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.1bn+3.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.1bn+3.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.7bnUSD -4.9bn+6.1%
    Capex, % of revenue1.0%1.0%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 650.6mUSD 560.7mUSD 555.4mUSD 547.6mUSD 537.4mUSD 524.7mUSD 509.5mUSD 491.8mUSD 471.6mUSD 448.9m+4.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 9.9bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.8bn+2.0%
    Discount factor0.97000.91270.85880.80810.76030.71540.67320.63340.59600.5608-
    Present valueUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 6.6bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 80.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.495Reported 0.246, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.99%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 5.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 78.0bn71.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 31.5bn28.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.28%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 807.74

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 11.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 14.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -4.4bn
    Capitalised
    USD 10.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 283.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 158.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 239.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 22.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 216.9bn

    Exit at 9.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 579.63

    55% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 173.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 97.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 178.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 22.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 155.7bn

    Spread between methods: 33%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.28%1383.621524.531749.922158.963105.83
    5.28%1001.011045.801109.881205.941360.95
    6.28%778.25790.30807.74833.01870.36
    7.28%632.39631.19631.39633.46638.14
    8.28%529.40522.45515.58508.80502.16

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 295.19. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year15.1%3.5%-5.4%
    EBIT margin4.1%3.6%0.8%
    Discount rate-6.3%12.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.