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    Ciena Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 46.14

    Market price

    USD 284.34

    Implied upside

    -83.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-10-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 90.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 46.14-83.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 144.70-49.1%
    Market price
    USD 284.34

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -0bn0bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.4bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 16.1bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 21.2bnUSD 23.3bnUSD 24.7bnUSD 25.3bn+16.5%
    EBITUSD 436.0mUSD 571.9mUSD 729.5mUSD 904.5mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+16.5%
    NOPATUSD 344.5mUSD 451.8mUSD 576.3mUSD 714.6mUSD 860.4mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bn+16.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 214.8mUSD 281.7mUSD 359.4mUSD 445.6mUSD 536.6mUSD 626.9mUSD 709.9mUSD 778.5mUSD 825.8mUSD 846.5m+16.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -181.2mUSD -247.5mUSD -328.3mUSD -422.6mUSD -527.6mUSD -638.3mUSD -747.6mUSD -847.1mUSD -927.4mUSD -980.2m+20.6%
    Capex, % of revenue2.8%2.9%3.1%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%3.6%3.8%3.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -578.2mUSD -698.1mUSD -810.3mUSD -899.4mUSD -948.7mUSD -941.8mUSD -866.1mUSD -715.5mUSD -493.9mUSD -215.4m-10.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -200.1mUSD -212.1mUSD -202.8mUSD -161.8mUSD -79.3mUSD 52.0mUSD 234.5mUSD 464.2mUSD 728.8mUSD 1.0bn-
    Discount factor0.95390.86790.78970.71850.65380.59490.54130.49250.44810.4077-
    Present valueUSD -190.9mUSD -184.1mUSD -160.2mUSD -116.3mUSD -51.8mUSD 30.9mUSD 126.9mUSD 228.6mUSD 326.6mUSD 411.1m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 420.9m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.235Reported 1.351, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.12%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 40.3bn96.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.6bn3.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.90%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 46.14

    94% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (25.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -394.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.2bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 16.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 6.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 7.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 317.5m
    Equity value
    USD 6.7bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 144.70

    98% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 51.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 20.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 21.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 317.5m
    Equity value
    USD 21.0bn

    Spread between methods: 103%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.90%70.5469.2467.9366.6365.32
    8.90%57.8456.7555.6654.5753.48
    9.90%47.9947.0646.1445.2144.28
    10.90%40.1839.3838.5937.7937.00
    11.90%33.8733.1832.5031.8131.12

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 284.34. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year9.5%18.2%46.6%
    EBIT margin8.8%6.8%29.7%
    Discount rate-9.9%4.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.