CINF · NMS · Financial Services
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck
Implied value per share
USD 387.73
Market price
USD 183.78
Implied upside
+111.0%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
AdjustedConsensus rests on as few as 2 analyst estimate(s).
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 17.4%
- Payout
- 22%
- Cost of equity
- 7.66%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 15.9bn | USD 17.9bn | USD 19.9bn | USD 22.0bn | USD 24.0bn | USD 25.9bn | USD 27.7bn | USD 29.4bn | USD 30.8bn | USD 31.9bn |
| Return on equity | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| Excess return | USD 1.6bn | USD 1.8bn | USD 2.0bn | USD 2.2bn | USD 2.4bn | USD 2.5bn | USD 2.7bn | USD 2.9bn | USD 3.0bn | USD 3.1bn |
| Present value | USD 1.4bn | USD 1.5bn | USD 1.6bn | USD 1.6bn | USD 1.6bn | USD 1.6bn | USD 1.6bn | USD 1.6bn | USD 1.5bn | USD 1.5bn |
| Book equity | USD 15.9bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 15.6bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 29.6bn |
| Equity value | USD 61.1bn |
| Per share | USD 387.73 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 0.654 | Reported 0.484, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 7.66% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.