DCF Studio

    CME · NMS · Financial Services

    CME Group Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 184.15

    Market price

    USD 306.24

    Implied upside

    -39.9%

    10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.

    Excess Returns

    Return on equity
    13.0%
    Payout
    100%
    Cost of equity
    6.81%
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Opening book equityUSD 28.7bnUSD 28.8bnUSD 28.9bnUSD 29.2bnUSD 29.5bnUSD 29.8bnUSD 30.3bnUSD 30.8bnUSD 31.4bnUSD 32.1bn
    Return on equity13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%
    Excess returnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bn
    Present valueUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bn
    Book equityUSD 28.7bn
    Present value of excess returnsUSD 13.1bn
    Terminal, growing at 2.50%USD 24.5bn
    Equity valueUSD 66.4bn
    Per shareUSD 184.15

    Discount Rate

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.453Reported 0.184, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.81%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.