DCF Studio

    CMG · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 22.66

    Market price

    USD 32.91

    Implied upside

    -31.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 5.5% of revenue against depreciation of 3.1%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 22.66-31.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 36.06+9.6%
    Market price
    USD 32.91

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 13.0bnUSD 14.4bnUSD 15.8bnUSD 17.1bnUSD 18.4bnUSD 19.6bnUSD 20.7bnUSD 21.7bnUSD 22.4bnUSD 23.0bn+6.5%
    EBITUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bn+6.5%
    NOPATUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bn+6.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 407.8mUSD 451.2mUSD 494.6mUSD 537.1mUSD 577.9mUSD 615.8mUSD 650.0mUSD 679.5mUSD 703.3mUSD 720.9m+6.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -717.0mUSD -767.3mUSD -812.7mUSD -851.7mUSD -883.1mUSD -905.6mUSD -918.5mUSD -921.1mUSD -913.0mUSD -894.4m+2.5%
    Capex, % of revenue5.5%5.3%5.2%5.0%4.8%4.6%4.4%4.3%4.1%3.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 3.2mUSD 4.1mUSD 4.1mUSD 4.0mUSD 3.8mUSD 3.6mUSD 3.2mUSD 2.8mUSD 2.3mUSD 1.7m+7.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bn+8.2%
    Discount factor0.95920.88250.81200.74710.68730.63240.58180.53530.49250.4531-
    Present valueUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 13.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.991Reported 0.986, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.08%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 41.6bn89.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.1bn10.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.69%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 22.66

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (5.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -173.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    42.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 46.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 20.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 34.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 30.4bn

    Exit at 19.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 36.06

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 85.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 38.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 52.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 48.4bn

    Spread between methods: 46%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.69%30.7032.8335.4938.8843.36
    7.69%24.9626.2627.8329.7432.13
    8.69%20.8321.6722.6623.8325.23
    9.69%17.7318.2918.9419.6920.57
    10.69%15.3115.7016.1416.6417.22

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 32.91. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year11.4%6.8%10.8%
    EBIT margin17.5%16.2%22.5%
    Discount rate-8.7%7.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.