COF · NYQ · Financial Services
Capital One Financial Corporation
Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck
Implied value per share
USD 151.21
Market price
USD 210.77
Implied upside
-28.3%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 7.7%
- Payout
- 26%
- Cost of equity
- 9.37%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 113.6bn | USD 119.7bn | USD 125.7bn | USD 131.6bn | USD 137.4bn | USD 143.0bn | USD 148.4bn | USD 153.5bn | USD 158.3bn | USD 162.8bn |
| Return on equity | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Excess return | USD -2.0bn | USD -2.1bn | USD -2.2bn | USD -2.3bn | USD -2.4bn | USD -2.5bn | USD -2.6bn | USD -2.6bn | USD -2.7bn | USD -2.8bn |
| Present value | USD -1.8bn | USD -1.7bn | USD -1.7bn | USD -1.6bn | USD -1.5bn | USD -1.4bn | USD -1.4bn | USD -1.3bn | USD -1.2bn | USD -1.1bn |
| Book equity | USD 113.6bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD -14.7bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD -17.1bn |
| Equity value | USD 81.9bn |
| Per share | USD 151.21 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 1.059 | Reported 1.088, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 9.37% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.