DCF Studio

    COIN · NMS · Financial Services

    Coinbase Global, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 8.45

    Market price

    USD 194.25

    Implied upside

    -95.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 4.4% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 1.01% of revenue against depreciation and amortisation of 3.47%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 3.47% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    AdjustedBeta of 3.388 is not usable in a cost of equity. Clamped to 2.50.
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 28.7x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 8.45-95.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 21.68-88.8%
    Market price
    USD 194.25

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -827133150-4135665750FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.4bnUSD 12.3bnUSD 16.1bnUSD 21.2bnUSD 27.7bn+31.0%
    EBITUSD -196.6mUSD -257.6mUSD -337.4mUSD -442.0mUSD -579.1m-31.0%
    NOPATUSD -167.6mUSD -219.5mUSD -287.6mUSD -376.7mUSD -493.5m-31.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 326.5mUSD 427.7mUSD 560.3mUSD 734.1mUSD 961.6m+31.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -326.5mUSD -427.7mUSD -560.3mUSD -734.1mUSD -961.6m+31.0%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -113.3mUSD -148.4mUSD -194.4mUSD -254.7mUSD -333.6m+31.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -280.8mUSD -367.9mUSD -482.0mUSD -631.4mUSD -827.1m-31.0%
    Discount factor0.92520.79190.67790.58020.4966-
    Present valueUSD -259.8mUSD -291.4mUSD -326.7mUSD -366.3mUSD -410.8m-12.1%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -1.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta2.500Clamped from a reported 3.388
    Cost of equity18.75%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.00%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 51.3bn86.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 7.8bn13.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate14.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC16.83%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 8.45

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD -1.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 2.4bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 21.68

    177% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 7.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 3.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 2.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 6.2bn

    Spread between methods: 88%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    14.83%8.178.178.178.178.17
    15.83%8.328.328.328.328.32
    16.83%8.458.458.458.458.45
    17.83%8.588.588.588.588.58
    18.83%8.718.718.718.718.71

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 194.25. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    EBIT margin-2.1%44.1%+46.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.