COL.MC · MCE · Real Estate
Colonial SFL, Socimi S. A.
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
EUR -0.80
Market price
EUR 5.08
Implied upside
-115.8%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 25.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 425.3m | EUR 442.9m | EUR 461.2m | EUR 480.3m | EUR 500.2m | +4.1% |
| EBIT | EUR 313.2m | EUR 326.1m | EUR 339.6m | EUR 353.7m | EUR 368.3m | +4.1% |
| NOPAT | EUR 234.9m | EUR 244.6m | EUR 254.7m | EUR 265.3m | EUR 276.2m | +4.1% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | EUR 8.2m | EUR 8.6m | EUR 8.9m | EUR 9.3m | EUR 9.7m | +4.1% |
| Less capital expenditure | EUR -6.7m | EUR -7.0m | EUR -7.2m | EUR -7.5m | EUR -7.9m | +4.1% |
| Less increase in working capital | EUR 3.2m | EUR 3.3m | EUR 3.5m | EUR 3.6m | EUR 3.8m | -4.1% |
| Free cashflow to firm | EUR 239.6m | EUR 249.5m | EUR 259.9m | EUR 270.6m | EUR 281.8m | +4.1% |
| Discount factor | 0.9694 | 0.9109 | 0.8560 | 0.8043 | 0.7558 | - |
| Present value | EUR 232.3m | EUR 227.3m | EUR 222.4m | EUR 217.7m | EUR 213.0m | -2.1% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | EUR 1.1bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 1.151 | Reported 1.226, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 11.68% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | EUR 3.2bn | 38.3% of capital |
| Total debt | EUR 5.1bn | 61.7% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.42% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
75% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- EUR 281.8m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- EUR 279.0m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (38.9% of NOPAT)
- EUR -108.7m
- Capitalised
- EUR 170.4m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 6.4%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 4.5bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 3.4bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 4.5bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 5.0bn
- Equity value
- EUR -494.0m
Exit at 20.0x EBITDA
84% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 7.6bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 5.7bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 6.8bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 5.0bn
- Equity value
- EUR 1.9bn
Sensitivity
Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.42% | 2.38 | 2.43 | 2.47 | 2.51 | 2.55 |
| 5.42% | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| 6.42% | -0.86 | -0.83 | -0.80 | -0.78 | -0.75 |
| 7.42% | -1.82 | -1.80 | -1.78 | -1.75 | -1.73 |
| 8.42% | -2.56 | -2.54 | -2.52 | -2.50 | -2.48 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 5.08. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 4.1% | 18.4% | +14.2pp |
| Discount rate | 6.4% | 3.5% | -2.9pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.