DCF Studio

    COP · NYQ · Energy

    ConocoPhillips

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 183.06

    Market price

    USD 146.84

    Implied upside

    +24.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 183.06+24.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 156.54+6.6%
    Market price
    USD 146.84

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn6bn12bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 73.3bnUSD 70.4bnUSD 68.1bnUSD 66.5bnUSD 65.5bnUSD 65.0bnUSD 65.0bnUSD 65.6bnUSD 66.7bnUSD 68.3bn-0.8%
    EBITUSD 18.7bnUSD 17.9bnUSD 17.3bnUSD 16.9bnUSD 16.7bnUSD 16.5bnUSD 16.5bnUSD 16.7bnUSD 17.0bnUSD 17.4bn-0.8%
    NOPATUSD 14.7bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 13.7bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.2bnUSD 13.1bnUSD 13.1bnUSD 13.2bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.7bn-0.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 11.2bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.5bn-0.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -14.0bnUSD -13.4bnUSD -13.0bnUSD -12.6bnUSD -12.4bnUSD -12.3bnUSD -12.3bnUSD -12.4bnUSD -12.5bnUSD -12.8bn-1.0%
    Capex, % of revenue19.1%19.1%19.0%19.0%19.0%18.9%18.9%18.9%18.8%18.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -421.9mUSD 86.5mUSD 66.2mUSD 47.8mUSD 30.7mUSD 14.6mUSD -1.0mUSD -16.5mUSD -32.3mUSD -48.8m-21.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.3bn-0.2%
    Discount factor0.96920.91050.85540.80360.75490.70920.66620.62590.58790.5523-
    Present valueUSD 11.2bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 82.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.439Reported 0.162, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.75%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 9.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 176.4bn88.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 23.4bn11.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.45%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 183.06

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 11.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 13.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (17.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.4bn
    Capitalised
    USD 11.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 295.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 163.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 245.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 16.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 229.5bn

    Exit at 8.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 156.54

    61% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 235.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 130.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 212.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 16.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 196.2bn

    Spread between methods: 16%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.45%285.38320.71374.75466.89657.40
    5.45%210.98225.98246.43275.67320.46
    6.45%166.66173.83183.06195.26211.94
    7.45%137.25140.80145.25150.92158.26
    8.45%116.32118.00120.12122.80126.19

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 146.84. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-9.1%1.5%-0.9%
    EBIT margin32.4%25.4%21.0%
    Discount rate-6.4%7.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.