DCF Studio

    CPAY · NYQ · Technology

    Corpay, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 502.02

    Market price

    USD 409.29

    Implied upside

    +22.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 502.02+22.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 596.71+45.8%
    Market price
    USD 409.29

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 8.7bn+5.6%
    EBITUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bn+5.6%
    NOPATUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bn+5.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 477.2mUSD 518.5mUSD 559.3mUSD 599.0mUSD 637.0mUSD 672.5mUSD 704.8mUSD 733.2mUSD 757.2mUSD 776.1m+5.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -230.8mUSD -292.8mUSD -361.3mUSD -435.6mUSD -514.9mUSD -598.1mUSD -684.1mUSD -771.2mUSD -857.8mUSD -942.3m+16.9%
    Capex, % of revenue4.3%5.1%5.8%6.5%7.3%8.0%8.7%9.4%10.2%10.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -108.4mUSD -62.9mUSD -62.3mUSD -60.6mUSD -57.9mUSD -54.1mUSD -49.3mUSD -43.4mUSD -36.5mUSD -28.9m-13.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bn+3.9%
    Discount factor0.96360.89460.83070.77120.71610.66490.61730.57310.53210.4941-
    Present valueUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 17.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.948Reported 0.922, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.90%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.67%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 4.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 26.9bn72.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 10.0bn27.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.70%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 502.02

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -692.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 53.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 26.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 43.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 35.7bn

    Exit at 14.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 596.71

    66% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 66.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 32.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 50.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 42.4bn

    Spread between methods: 17%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.70%763.39809.30871.07957.481085.32
    6.70%595.50616.13642.76677.82725.26
    7.70%481.81490.65502.02516.74535.99
    8.70%399.75402.58406.53411.90419.09
    9.70%337.75337.36337.46338.15339.58

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 409.29. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year9.7%6.7%4.7%
    EBIT margin44.2%43.4%35.9%
    Discount rate-7.7%8.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.