DCF Studio

    CPRT · NMS · Industrials

    Copart, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 37.00

    Market price

    USD 31.93

    Implied upside

    +15.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-07-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 11.2% of revenue against depreciation of 4.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 37.00+15.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 45.24+41.7%
    Market price
    USD 31.93

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 5.5bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 10.8bn+7.8%
    EBITUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bn+7.8%
    NOPATUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bn+7.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 252.6mUSD 286.2mUSD 320.3mUSD 354.2mUSD 387.0mUSD 417.5mUSD 444.8mUSD 467.9mUSD 485.9mUSD 498.1m+7.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -615.8mUSD -684.2mUSD -750.9mUSD -813.8mUSD -870.9mUSD -920.2mUSD -959.6mUSD -987.6mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.0bn+5.6%
    Capex, % of revenue11.2%11.0%10.8%10.6%10.4%10.1%9.9%9.7%9.5%9.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -3.8mUSD -3.4mUSD -3.5mUSD -3.4mUSD -3.3mUSD -3.1mUSD -2.8mUSD -2.3mUSD -1.8mUSD -1.2m-11.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bn+8.8%
    Discount factor0.95730.87730.80400.73680.67520.61880.56710.51970.47630.4365-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 12.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.001Reported 1.002, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.13%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 29.6bn99.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 88.4m0.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.12%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 37.00

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (15.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -506.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    15.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 41.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 18.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 31.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 35.4bn

    Exit at 13.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 45.24

    67% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 59.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 26.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 38.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 43.3bn

    Spread between methods: 20%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.12%48.3149.8551.7754.2257.41
    8.12%41.2642.0743.0644.2945.83
    9.12%36.0936.5037.0037.6238.38
    10.12%32.1432.3232.5432.8333.19
    11.12%29.0329.0729.1329.2329.37

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 31.93. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year6.4%8.8%6.7%
    EBIT margin38.4%36.9%31.4%
    Discount rate-9.1%10.3%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.