DCF Studio

    CPT · NYQ · Real Estate

    Camden Property Trust

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 7.28

    Market price

    USD 101.67

    Implied upside

    -92.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 7.2% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 7.28-92.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 67.95-33.2%
    Market price
    USD 101.67

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m229m457mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+1.7%
    EBITUSD 298.2mUSD 300.7mUSD 303.8mUSD 307.6mUSD 312.0mUSD 317.2mUSD 323.2mUSD 329.9mUSD 337.4mUSD 345.9m+1.7%
    NOPATUSD 295.4mUSD 297.9mUSD 300.9mUSD 304.7mUSD 309.1mUSD 314.2mUSD 320.1mUSD 326.8mUSD 334.3mUSD 342.6m+1.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 598.0mUSD 603.0mUSD 609.2mUSD 616.8mUSD 625.7mUSD 636.1mUSD 648.0mUSD 661.5mUSD 676.7mUSD 693.6m+1.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -432.9mUSD -465.2mUSD -499.2mUSD -534.9mUSD -572.5mUSD -612.5mUSD -654.9mUSD -700.1mUSD -748.5mUSD -800.4m+7.1%
    Capex, % of revenue27.9%29.8%31.6%33.5%35.3%37.2%39.0%40.8%42.7%44.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -3.3mUSD 1.8mUSD 2.2mUSD 2.7mUSD 3.2mUSD 3.7mUSD 4.3mUSD 4.8mUSD 5.4mUSD 6.0m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 457.3mUSD 437.3mUSD 413.2mUSD 389.3mUSD 365.5mUSD 341.6mUSD 317.5mUSD 293.0mUSD 267.8mUSD 241.9m-6.8%
    Discount factor0.96220.89070.82460.76340.70670.65420.60570.56070.51910.4805-
    Present valueUSD 440.0mUSD 389.5mUSD 340.7mUSD 297.2mUSD 258.3mUSD 223.5mUSD 192.3mUSD 164.3mUSD 139.0mUSD 116.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 2.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.845Reported 0.768, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.47%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.73%Risk-free + 184bp, the spread for a BB rating at 2.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 11.8bn75.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.9bn24.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.02%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 7.28

    45% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 241.9m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 342.6m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -106.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 235.8m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 4.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 2.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 4.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 789.9m

    Exit at 17.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 67.95

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 18.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 7.4bn

    Spread between methods: 161%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.02%20.8820.1919.5118.8218.14
    7.02%13.6613.1012.5511.9911.44
    8.02%8.207.747.286.826.36
    9.02%3.933.553.162.772.39
    10.02%0.490.16-0.17-0.50-0.83

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 101.67. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.4%1.3%16.0%
    EBIT margin21.0%19.2%68.8%
    Discount rate-8.0%3.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.