DCF Studio

    CRH · NYQ · Basic Materials

    CRH plc

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 78.14

    Market price

    USD 96.59

    Implied upside

    -19.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 78.14-19.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 104.23+7.9%
    Market price
    USD 96.59

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 39.7bnUSD 43.2bnUSD 46.7bnUSD 50.1bnUSD 53.4bnUSD 56.4bnUSD 59.2bnUSD 61.6bnUSD 63.6bnUSD 65.2bn+5.7%
    EBITUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.5bn+5.7%
    NOPATUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.7bn+5.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bn+5.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.7bnUSD -4.9bn+8.2%
    Capex, % of revenue6.1%6.2%6.4%6.6%6.7%6.9%7.1%7.2%7.4%7.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -349.7mUSD -545.3mUSD -540.4mUSD -526.4mUSD -502.9mUSD -469.7mUSD -426.9mUSD -374.8mUSD -314.2mUSD -246.1m-3.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bn+4.3%
    Discount factor0.96020.88520.81610.75240.69370.63950.58960.54360.50120.4620-
    Present valueUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 27.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.147Reported 1.219, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.74%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 64.3bn76.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 19.7bn23.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.47%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 78.14

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 4.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 6.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.6bn
    Capitalised
    USD 5.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 88.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 40.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 68.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 52.9bn

    Exit at 10.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 104.23

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 126.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 58.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 86.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 70.6bn

    Spread between methods: 29%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.47%120.72124.65129.86136.89146.68
    7.47%95.6496.9698.77101.21104.54
    8.47%77.8477.9078.1478.6079.37
    9.47%64.5663.9863.4663.0062.63
    10.47%54.2953.3952.4951.6050.70

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 96.59. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.6%5.7%7.9%
    EBIT margin14.2%13.1%15.3%
    Discount rate-8.5%7.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.