DCF Studio

    CRL · NYQ · Healthcare

    Charles River Laboratories International, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 56.89

    Market price

    USD 338.54

    Implied upside

    -83.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 23.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 56.89-83.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 191.92-43.3%
    Market price
    USD 338.54

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m245m491mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bn+2.5%
    EBITUSD 511.5mUSD 524.4mUSD 537.7mUSD 551.2mUSD 565.1mUSD 579.3mUSD 593.9mUSD 608.8mUSD 624.0mUSD 639.6m+2.5%
    NOPATUSD 404.4mUSD 414.7mUSD 425.2mUSD 435.9mUSD 446.9mUSD 458.1mUSD 469.6mUSD 481.4mUSD 493.4mUSD 505.8m+2.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 335.2mUSD 343.6mUSD 352.3mUSD 361.2mUSD 370.3mUSD 379.6mUSD 389.2mUSD 398.9mUSD 408.9mUSD 419.1m+2.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -265.3mUSD -292.3mUSD -320.5mUSD -349.9mUSD -380.6mUSD -412.6mUSD -446.0mUSD -480.7mUSD -516.9mUSD -554.6m+8.5%
    Capex, % of revenue6.8%7.3%7.8%8.3%8.8%9.3%9.8%10.3%10.8%11.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 16.3mUSD -16.4mUSD -16.8mUSD -17.2mUSD -17.6mUSD -18.0mUSD -18.4mUSD -18.9mUSD -19.3mUSD -19.8m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 490.6mUSD 449.6mUSD 440.2mUSD 430.0mUSD 418.9mUSD 407.1mUSD 394.3mUSD 380.7mUSD 366.1mUSD 350.5m-3.7%
    Discount factor0.95640.87470.80010.73180.66930.61220.55990.51220.46840.4285-
    Present valueUSD 469.2mUSD 393.3mUSD 352.2mUSD 314.6mUSD 280.4mUSD 249.2mUSD 220.8mUSD 195.0mUSD 171.5mUSD 150.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 2.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.226Reported 1.338, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.08%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 16.3bn86.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.6bn13.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.33%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 56.89

    46% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 350.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 505.8m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -135.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 370.3m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 5.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 2.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 5.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 2.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 191.92

    76% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 21.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 11.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 9.5bn

    Spread between methods: 109%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.33%87.2985.6383.9782.3080.64
    8.33%71.5870.1968.8167.4266.04
    9.33%59.2458.0756.8955.7254.55
    10.33%49.2948.2947.2946.2845.28
    11.33%41.1140.2439.3738.5137.64

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 338.54. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.3%2.0%20.3%
    EBIT margin16.4%13.1%49.7%
    Discount rate-9.3%4.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.