DCF Studio

    CRWD · NMS · Technology

    CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -1.56

    Market price

    USD 241.81

    Implied upside

    -100.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-01-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 8.8% of revenue against depreciation of 5.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -1.56-100.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD -1.26-100.5%
    Market price
    USD 241.81

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -1061637810-5308189050FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.0bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 12.0bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 14.9bnUSD 16.1bnUSD 16.9bnUSD 17.3bn+12.5%
    EBITUSD -272.6mUSD -334.8mUSD -402.7mUSD -474.1mUSD -546.2mUSD -615.3mUSD -677.6mUSD -729.0mUSD -765.7mUSD -784.9m-12.5%
    NOPATUSD -215.3mUSD -264.5mUSD -318.1mUSD -374.6mUSD -431.5mUSD -486.1mUSD -535.3mUSD -575.9mUSD -604.9mUSD -620.0m-12.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 303.4mUSD 372.6mUSD 448.2mUSD 527.7mUSD 607.9mUSD 684.9mUSD 754.2mUSD 811.4mUSD 852.3mUSD 873.6m+12.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -530.1mUSD -614.7mUSD -695.6mUSD -767.5mUSD -824.9mUSD -862.5mUSD -876.1mUSD -863.4mUSD -823.7mUSD -759.1m+4.1%
    Capex, % of revenue8.8%8.3%7.8%7.3%6.9%6.4%5.9%5.4%4.9%4.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -311.1mUSD -356.7mUSD -389.3mUSD -409.6mUSD -413.2mUSD -396.5mUSD -357.1mUSD -294.5mUSD -210.7mUSD -109.8m-10.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -753.1mUSD -863.2mUSD -954.8mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.0bnUSD -922.4mUSD -787.0mUSD -615.3m+2.2%
    Discount factor0.95550.87230.79640.72700.66370.60600.55320.50510.46110.4209-
    Present valueUSD -719.6mUSD -753.0mUSD -760.4mUSD -744.5mUSD -704.7mUSD -642.4mUSD -561.1mUSD -465.9mUSD -362.9mUSD -259.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -6.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.100Reported 1.150, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.55%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a D rating at -10.5x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 247.6bn99.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 820.1m0.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.54%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -1.56

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD -6.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD -1.6bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD -1.26

    -5% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 709.9m
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 298.8m
    Enterprise value
    USD -5.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD -1.3bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.54%-2.05-2.05-2.05-2.05-2.05
    8.54%-1.80-1.80-1.80-1.80-1.80
    9.54%-1.56-1.56-1.56-1.56-1.56
    10.54%-1.34-1.34-1.34-1.34-1.34
    11.54%-1.12-1.12-1.12-1.12-1.12

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 241.81. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.