DCF Studio

    CRWD · NMS · Technology

    CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 1.38

    Market price

    USD 237.65

    Implied upside

    -99.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 0.6% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 8.8% of revenue against depreciation of 5.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 1.38-99.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 1.82-99.2%
    Market price
    USD 237.65

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -1290884839-6454424200FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.2bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 17.2bn+29.0%
    EBITUSD -281.6mUSD -363.3mUSD -468.7mUSD -604.7mUSD -780.1m-29.0%
    NOPATUSD -222.5mUSD -287.0mUSD -370.3mUSD -477.7mUSD -616.3m-29.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 313.5mUSD 404.4mUSD 521.7mUSD 673.1mUSD 868.3m+29.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -547.7mUSD -706.6mUSD -911.6mUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.5bn+29.0%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -9.3mUSD -12.0mUSD -15.5mUSD -20.0mUSD -25.8m+29.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -466.1mUSD -601.2mUSD -775.6mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.3bn-29.0%
    Discount factor0.94740.85040.76320.68510.6149-
    Present valueUSD -441.5mUSD -511.3mUSD -592.0mUSD -685.5mUSD -793.8m-15.8%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -3.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.171Reported 1.255, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.44%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.00%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 243.3bn99.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 820.1m0.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC11.41%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 1.38

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 0.00
    Enterprise value
    USD -3.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 1.4bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 1.82

    -17% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 705.6m
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 433.9m
    Enterprise value
    USD -2.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 1.8bn

    Spread between methods: 27%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    9.41%1.231.231.231.231.23
    10.41%1.311.311.311.311.31
    11.41%1.381.381.381.381.38
    12.41%1.461.461.461.461.46
    13.41%1.531.531.531.531.53

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 237.65. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.