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    CVX · NYQ · Energy

    Chevron Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 157.55

    Market price

    USD 227.77

    Implied upside

    -30.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 157.55-30.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 230.70+1.3%
    Market price
    USD 227.77

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn12bn25bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 248.6bnUSD 237.0bnUSD 228.0bnUSD 221.4bnUSD 217.0bnUSD 214.7bnUSD 214.2bnUSD 215.7bnUSD 219.2bnUSD 224.7bn-1.1%
    EBITUSD 30.5bnUSD 29.1bnUSD 28.0bnUSD 27.2bnUSD 26.6bnUSD 26.3bnUSD 26.3bnUSD 26.5bnUSD 26.9bnUSD 27.6bn-1.1%
    NOPATUSD 24.1bnUSD 23.0bnUSD 22.1bnUSD 21.5bnUSD 21.0bnUSD 20.8bnUSD 20.8bnUSD 20.9bnUSD 21.3bnUSD 21.8bn-1.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 21.7bnUSD 20.7bnUSD 19.9bnUSD 19.3bnUSD 19.0bnUSD 18.7bnUSD 18.7bnUSD 18.8bnUSD 19.1bnUSD 19.6bn-1.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -19.3bnUSD -19.3bnUSD -19.4bnUSD -19.7bnUSD -20.1bnUSD -20.7bnUSD -21.5bnUSD -22.5bnUSD -23.6bnUSD -25.1bn+3.0%
    Capex, % of revenue7.8%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.3%9.7%10.0%10.4%10.8%11.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -2.6bnUSD 480.7mUSD 370.4mUSD 271.8mUSD 181.9mUSD 97.8mUSD 17.2mUSD -62.2mUSD -142.6mUSD -226.2m-23.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 23.9bnUSD 24.9bnUSD 23.0bnUSD 21.4bnUSD 20.1bnUSD 18.9bnUSD 18.0bnUSD 17.2bnUSD 16.6bnUSD 16.1bn-4.3%
    Discount factor0.96540.89980.83870.78170.72860.67910.63300.59000.54990.5125-
    Present valueUSD 23.1bnUSD 22.4bnUSD 19.3bnUSD 16.7bnUSD 14.6bnUSD 12.9bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 8.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 147.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.634Reported 0.453, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.57%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 13.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 444.4bn91.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 40.8bn8.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.29%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 157.55

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 16.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 21.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (25.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -5.5bn
    Capitalised
    USD 16.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 349.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 179.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 326.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 34.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 292.4bn

    Exit at 13.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 230.70

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 614.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 314.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 462.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 34.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 428.1bn

    Spread between methods: 38%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.29%235.26247.84265.53291.68333.38
    6.29%186.41191.10197.44206.19218.65
    7.29%154.31155.64157.56160.27164.09
    8.29%131.57131.32131.27131.48132.04
    9.29%114.58113.56112.58111.67110.83

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 227.77. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-7.9%2.0%6.2%
    EBIT margin16.9%12.3%17.3%
    Discount rate-7.3%5.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.