DCF Studio

    D · NYQ · Utilities

    Dominion Energy, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -18.85

    Market price

    USD 67.72

    Implied upside

    -127.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 71.6% of revenue against depreciation of 19.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -18.85-127.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 35.84-47.1%
    Market price
    USD 67.72

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -6bn-1bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 18.3bnUSD 19.5bnUSD 20.7bnUSD 21.9bnUSD 23.0bnUSD 24.1bnUSD 25.1bnUSD 26.0bnUSD 26.8bnUSD 27.4bn+4.6%
    EBITUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.3bn+4.6%
    NOPATUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 5.9bn+4.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.4bn+4.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -13.1bnUSD -13.0bnUSD -12.8bnUSD -12.5bnUSD -12.0bnUSD -11.4bnUSD -10.6bnUSD -9.7bnUSD -8.7bnUSD -7.6bn-5.8%
    Capex, % of revenue71.6%66.7%61.8%57.0%52.1%47.2%42.3%37.5%32.6%27.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -337.2mUSD -236.8mUSD -232.9mUSD -226.3mUSD -216.8mUSD -204.4mUSD -189.3mUSD -171.4mUSD -151.0mUSD -128.3m-10.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -5.9bnUSD -5.2bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -3.7bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -469.8mUSD 804.1mUSD 2.2bnUSD 3.6bn-
    Discount factor0.96820.90750.85070.79740.74750.70070.65680.61570.57710.5410-
    Present valueUSD -5.7bnUSD -4.7bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -308.6mUSD 495.1mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.9bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -17.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.725Reported 0.590, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.96%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.27%Risk-free + 138bp, the spread for a BB+ rating at 2.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 59.6bn54.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 48.9bn45.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.68%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -18.85

    153% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 5.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.7bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 90.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 49.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 48.7bn
    Equity value
    USD -16.6bn

    Exit at 14.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 35.84

    121% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 179.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 97.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 80.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 48.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 31.5bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.68%20.7418.8016.8614.9212.98
    5.68%-1.38-2.89-4.40-5.91-7.41
    6.68%-16.43-17.64-18.85-20.06-21.27
    7.68%-27.19-28.18-29.18-30.17-31.17
    8.68%-35.17-36.01-36.84-37.67-38.51

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 67.72. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.8%5.2%16.6%
    EBIT margin29.9%26.4%52.0%
    Discount rate-6.7%3.9%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.